The trade deadline is over. Everyone is now locked in for the last three games before playoffs and will have to use what they’ve got to win.
Overall Rankings
Detroit Wolverines are inching closer to Kali Warriors and Not Lucky. At this point we can realistically say Bling Bling will win their division. But Kali Warriors might not win theirs (this week’s matchup against Total domination could be the difference maker), and either them or the Wolverines could surpass Not Lucky in points. That means after such a strong start, Not Lucky might not even make the playoffs. It’s a slim chance, but it’s possible given they’re no longer as dominant. Also good to note that Pegasus looked much better this week, a good sign for the playoffs.
Offense
Not Lucky drops below their division rivals to third. Division by Zero now holds the top three offensive scoring units.
QB
Detroit Wolverines falls because “Dr. Watson” (their nickname not mine) had a bye week and Stafford sat out to a surprise back injury. Mahomes is back and looking great for the Winged Hussars. Hard to say at this point who will end up with the best QB, but I don’t think anyone else is going to break the top 6.
RB
This is it. This is the week that Kali Warriors finally overtakes Not Lucky in total RB points. That’s despite Barkley earning single-digit points this week. Detroit Wolverines are close behind. Will they be the next to surpass Not Lucky? Also no one is catching Bling Bling. Sorry, but I don’t think anyone is going to make up a 110 point difference.
WR
There was one trade this week that made me scratch my head a little. Kali Warriors sent Stefon Diggs and a 4th round pick for JuJu Smith-Schuster. Now that’s definitely a fair trade. Two young receivers that have a lot of potential, but both have had a shaky year. But I have to wonder what this really accomplishes for either team. Nobody got better because of it. Both teams are picking which dice they want to roll. I guess that’s fair.
Also note that Not Lucky has steadily risen to number one at WR since trading away Dalvin Cook, which in return gave them… QB Kirk Cousins, RB Jordan Howard, and a 1st round pick. Huh?
TE
I think I saw more TEs traded in the last two weeks than there are TEs in the league. It doesn’t seem to have made much of a difference because there has been very little movement in the top half of rankings. Give it some time though. Things could change.
Defense
A good sign for Not Lucky rising up to third in defense even though they fell to third offense. That shows they’ve done well to balance out their team, which will hopefully offset their bad luck.
DL
What happened that Not Lucky scored 40 more points than Kali Warriors? Chandler Jones and Chris Jones is what happened. The C. Joneses might just be what gets Not Lucky into the playoffs.
LB
Nothing exciting at the LB rankings this week except that speed-demons are within reaching distance of the leader Bling Bling.
DB
I’m sorry if it seems like I’ve only been talking about the top five teams this week, so instead of talking about Not Lucky’s Jamal Adams scoring nearly 40 points let’s instead talk about how three of the top five teams at DB probably won’t make the playoffs this year. I don’t what that says about DBs, but the other two teams are the best scorers overall, so you’re in good company.
Final Thoughts
We are going into the division rivalry games just before playoffs. Based on how everyone ranks, I don’t know if we’re going to actually get anything much different than if the playoffs started today. The division title is a toss-up between Tricksters and speed-demons, but I think it unlikely that the loser will beat Not Lucky or the Detroit Wolverines for a Wild Card spot. Winged Hussars and Red Warriors are officially eliminated, and Golden Eagles are effectively out as well. Necessary Roughness would need a strange combination of losses from their rivals, and would need to win out. The only thing that would make this playoff race interesting is if Total domination pulls an upset over Kali Warriors this week and goes on to win their division. That would mean one of these three teams (Kali Warriors, Detroit Wolverines, Not Lucky) would not make the playoffs.
And speaking of playoffs.
BONUS ROUND: Playoff Predictions
I’m going to put my predictions for who will get in, who will be out, and how far they’ll go. And then we’ll see week to week how I do. Feel free to challenge me (you gotta lock in before Sunday). I’m willing to make a non-monetary bet with anyone who does.
Who’s In
(1) Bling Bling
No question here. Definitely the best team. They have three really tough games ahead, but they should win at least one of those. They’d have to lose all three and either of their division rivals would have to win all three of their games. Statistics say unlikely.
(2) Kali Warriors
I think Kali Warriors will end up beating Total domination and they should win against Red Warriors. They own all tie breakers over the other division leaders (besides Bling Bling), so unless they lose this week, I’d say they’re locked in.
(3) Pegasus
Pegasus benefits from being in a weak division. They have a good shot at going 3-0.
(4) speed-demons
I give this to speed-demons only because they’re one game ahead of Tricksters. I’d be surprised if they lost to Necessary Roughness, so they’ve got a chance to go up two games before they play Tricksters. Their out-of-division game is against the Golden Eagles, whereas Tricksters play a much stronger Pegasus, so I’m confident they’ll win at least two of their next three.
(5) Detroit Wolverines
This one is probably going to come down to their matchup against Not Lucky in Week 13. I’m going to ride the hot hand and give it Detroit Wolverines.
(6) Not Lucky
There’d have to be some crazy upsets for Not Lucky to miss the playoffs. They still hold the second most points scored, and I don’t see anyone else knocking out the above teams from a Wild Card or division spot.
Who Wins
Based on predictions, here’s how I think the theoretical matchups would play out.
(3) Pegasus vs (6) Not Lucky
A spectacular rematch. This will no doubt be an intense matchup. I’m going to say Not Lucky pulls ahead just because I’m more confident they can play consistently week-to-week, and Pegasus has not improved where they need to.
(4) speed-demons vs (5) Detroit Wolverines
This is not clear cut, but I think the Detroit Wolverines are just plain better at everything. Their biggest weakness is on defense, but speed-demons aren’t anything spectacular either and the Detroit Wolverines have looked better on that side of the ball recently. Detroit Wolverines should win this.
(1) Bling Bling vs (6) Not Lucky
In round two, we’ve got all three members from Division by Zero, and this division rivalry game is where it will matter. They say beating a team three times is tough, but that’s just basic probabilities at play. I think Bling Bling still wins this one. Their two losses came during bye week season. At full strength, they’re nearly unstoppable.
(2) Kali Warriors vs (5) Detroit Wolverines
I’ve just not been impressed with Kali Warriors this season. Their four losses come from speed-demons, Pegasus, Necessary Roughness, and Detroit Wolverines. You gotta beat the tough teams if you’re going to prove to me that you can be a championship contender. Detroit Wolverines have also looked really good in the last few weeks.
Championship Bling Bling vs Detroit Wolverines
In this theoretical scenario, Bling Bling must beat both their division rivals to win the championship. This could go either way, but I’m going to give it to Detroit Wolverines. They’ve surged late in the season, whereas Bling Bling has shown their weaknesses (few though they be). There’s also something in me that just can’t pick the obvious favorite Bling Bling. It’s like saying the Patriots will win the Super Bowl. Sure there’s a better chance of being right than picking any other team, but you don’t look smart for saying so.