Playoff Picture

Clinched Seeds

• Tricksters: Clinched the #1 seed
• Kali Warriors: Clinched the #2 seed
• Not Lucky: Clinched either the #3/#4 seed
• Winged Hussars: Clinched either #3/#4 seed

Mathematically eliminated:

• Pegasus

Monte Carlo Simulation

As usual, I’ve run a Monte Carlo sim of Rivalry Week, simulating 100,000 outcomes.

Matches are simulated using randomly generated scores sampled from a normal distribution based on each team’s performance this season.

Here are the results (sorted by total probability):

Highlights

• In 100,000 simulations, The Death Eaters took the #6 seed exactly once. For this to happen, they need to both get around their season-high 219 points, and every other contender needs to have cripplingly bad games. But there is a chance.
• This illustrates how crucial the #6 seed is to helping out unlucky teams. Despite currently being 5-8 (#10 by record), Bling Bling has a very good shot at making it into the playoffs because of their overall good performance (75-68 overall wins).

Teams in the Hunt

Here are the teams in the hunt for a playoff seed (of which there are many) and what they need to happen in order to secure a shot at the championship.

Teams Likely to Lock it Up

In the “Competition, ranked by threat” list, percentages in parentheses refer to the probability of getting the contested seed, not total probability

Bling Bling (5-8 | 2121.7 | 85.68% Total Prob)

Seed they’re gunning for: #6

Competition, ranked by threat:

1. Red Warriors (2071.18 | 12.32%)
2. Detroit Wolverines (2039.1 1.3%)
3. speed-demons (2027.28 | 0.7%)
4. The Death Eaters (1946.04 | 0.001%)

What they need

• They are 50.52 points ahead of their biggest competition, so they just need to not score 50.53 fewer points than the Red Warriors, and they’ve pretty much locked it up.

Necessary Roughness (7-6 | 2075.84 | 71.73% Total Prob)

Seed they’re gunning for: #5

Competition, ranked by threat:

1. Red Warriors (6-7 | 2071.18)
2. Detroit Wolverines (6-7 | 2039.1)
3. speed-demons (6-7 | 2027.28)
4. Golden Eagles (6-7 | 1958.8)

What they need

• A win. Winning their game against rival Bling Bling would secure the #5 seed, since their 8-6 record would be unmatched.
• If they lose, they need:
  • Red Warriors to lose or win and score no more than 4.66 points than they do.
  • Detroit Wolverines to lose or win and score no more than 36.74 points than they do.
  • speed-demons to lose or win and score no more than 48.56 points than they do.
  • Golden Eagles to lose or win and score no more than 117.04 points than they do.

Long Shots

Here are the teams with a long shot at a playoff spot.

Red Warriors (6-7 | 2071.18 | 34.56%)

Their miracle

To secure a playoff spot against the odds, they need the following to happen:

More Likely (#5 Seed | 22.24%):

• Secure a win against the Golden Eagles.
• Necessary Roughness must lose the game they are currently favored to win.
• Score 4.67 more points than Necessary Roughness and maintain their points lead over other potentially 7-7 teams.

Less Likely (#6 Seed | 12.32%):

• Score at least 50.53 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).

Detroit Wolverines (6-7 | 2039.1 | 4.44%)

Their miracle

To secure a playoff spot against the odds, they need the following to happen:

More Likely (#5 Seed | 3.14%)

• Secure a win against the Tricksters (easier said than done).
• Necessary Roughness must lose the game they are currently favored to win.
• Score at least 36.75 points more than Necessary Roughness.

Less Likely (#6 Seed | 1.3%)

• Score at least 82.7 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).

speed-demons (6-7 | 2027.28 | 3.58%)

Their miracle

To secure a playoff spot against the odds, they need the following to happen:

More Likely (#5 Seed | 2.88%)

• Secure a win against the Kali Warriors.
• Necessary Roughness must lose the game they are currently favored to win.
• Score at least 48.57 points more than Necessary Roughness.

Less Likely (#6 Seed | 0.7%)

• Score at least 94.43 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).

Golden Eagles (6-7 | 1958.8 | 0.01%)

More Likely (#5 Seed | 0.01%)

• Secure a win against Red Warriors.
• Necessary Roughness must lose the game they are currently favored to win.
• Score at least 117.05 points more than Necessary Roughness.

Basically Impossible (#6 Seed | ~ 0.001%)>)

• Score at least 162.91 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).

The Death Eaters (3-10 | 1946.04 | ~ 0.001%)

Basically Impossible (#6 Seed | ~ 0.001%)

• Score at least 175.67 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).
• Probably the only reason this happened in the simulation but a #6 seed didn’t happen for Golden Eagles is that TDE’s season high is 10 points more than GE’s.

And that’s the playoff picture! Good luck to all teams in the hunt: may the TDs be ever in your favor.

Announcements and Such

Overdue Congratulations

Congratulations to our 2020 league champions, the Detroit Wolverines! After securing the #2 seed, they met the defending champions–the Tricksters–and beat them in a very close match by fewer than 2 points.

Yours truly, the Kali Warriors, took home the Lord of Toilets title for the second season in a row. Somebody please take it from me

The Title Belt

I’ve gone through and updated the title belt history to be current. The current title belt holder is Not Lucky, and they’re defending their title from 8-time belt holder Kali Warriors.

Stats and Other Goodies

Division Leaderboard

At this point in the season, The Resistance once again proves to be a powerhouse division, trailed closely by Division by Zero.

Points Leaders

Points For

The ever-dominant Tricksters show no signs of stepping on the brakes. Even this early into the season, it seems very unlikely that they don’t make it into the playoffs. The defending champs haven’t been doing quite as well, but that may be because of some poor lineup choices more than a lack of power on the roster.

Manager Grade

Here we see one of the reasons behind the Wolverines’ struggles so far this season. Up to this point they’ve only been able to realize 70% of their potential and have been the worst at setting their starting lineup in the first four games. They have the third-most potential points, but they’ve so far been unable to put those points in the starting lineup.

Power Rankings

Power Rankings Over Time

{
  "type": "line",
  "data": {
    "labels":["W1","W2","W3", "W4", "W5"],
    "datasets":[
      {
        "borderColor": "#800000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[2,2,5,6,4],
        "label":"Kali Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#e6194B",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[11,11,10,10,10],
        "label":"The Death Eaters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f58231",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[10,10,11,11,12],
        "label":"Red Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#808000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[6,6,4,4,2],
        "label":"speed-demons"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#bfef45",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[1,1,1,1,1],
        "label":"Tricksters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#3cb44b",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[9,9,9,9,9],
        "label":"Necessary Roughness"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#4363d8",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[7,7,3,2,5],
        "label":"Bling Bling"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#911eb4",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[3,3,7,5,6],
        "label":"Not Lucky"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f032e6",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[4,4,6,7,7],
        "label":"Detroit Wolverines"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#000000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[8,8,8,8,8],
        "label":"Pegasus"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#aaffc3",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[12,12,12,12,11],
        "label":"Golden Eagles"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#469990",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[5,5,2,3,3],
        "label":"Winged Hussars"
      }
    ]
  },
  "options": {
    "elements": {
      "line": {
        "tension": 0
      }
    },
    "scales": {
      "yAxes": [{
          "stacked": false,
          "ticks": {
            "reverse": true,
            "min": 1
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}

Notes:

• Despite not having the best official record, the Tricksters’ overall win ratio, consistency, and average PPG make them the clear #1 through every week this season.
• #2 - #7 spots see the most shakeups week-to-week, with the bottom 5 mostly remaining stagnant. Depending on the outcomes of the games this week, though, we may see Pegasus break into the top 7 as the Wolverines continue their descent.
• The Winged Hussars are probably the team that has made the most significant positive turnaround from the past season. They may not boom as much as other 3-1 teams have, but they score around their PPG most consistently.

Team-by-Team Breakdown

Not going to do this every week, but let’s look at where each team is at, starting at the bottom of the power rankings.

#12 - Red Warriors

With a PPG trailing the league average by nearly 40 points and sitting at last in Max PF, there is little hope for the Red Warriors to make another postseason appearance, despite going 9-4 just last year. It seems like this team might need to shift gears into full rebuild mode and start planning for the future, because 2021 is not looking like their year.

#11 - Golden Eagles

The Golden Eagles aren’t in that much of a better position 4 weeks into the season. Before the draft they shipped off Adam Thielen in exchange for some draft capital (one pick of which they had previously traded away), which is probably a step in the right direction for another team looking at a rebuild.

#10 - The Death Eaters

The Death Eaters–formerly the not-so-dominant Total Domination–look at least somewhat significantly better than the #11 and #12 in these power rankings. If history is anything to go by, they’ll make it into the playoffs at the last moment, knocking the Kali Warriors into the consolation bracket.

#9 - Necessary Roughness

In the early-to-mid-season, Necessary Roughness tends to sit around here. They’re about average in terms of PPG for much of the season. Last season, NR broke out into a winning record, securing a playoff seed in the process. Can they do it again?

#8 - Pegasus

Despite scoring fewer points-per-game than Necessary Roughness, Pegasus managed to get a couple more overall wins thanks to their #4-in-the-league consistency. There’s certainly potential on this roster to pop off and secure a playoff seed, but based on performance-to-date, that’s looking unlikely, especially with Winged Hussars standing between them and a divisional title.

#7 - Detroit Wolverines

Unlike the Tricksters before them, the Detroit Wolverines don’t exactly look as good as their championship title would lead you to believe. About as close to mediocrity as you can get, the Wolverines currently have a 50% win-rate and a near-50% overall win-rate.

Given their significant Max PF, there’s obvious potential to break out and steal the divisional seed or a wild card seed, but we’ll have to wait and see how that pans out. My very scientific Monte Carlo playoff seed simulation gives them a 13.62% chance of a playoff berth, which is substantially higher than anyone below them in the power rankings, and anything can happen.

#6 - Not Lucky

Despite being 3-1 and leading their division, Not Lucky sits at #6 because their other stats tell a slightly different story. Their average PPG is worst among 3-1 teams, and division rival Bling Bling sits at 2-2 despite having the third-best overall win record. Given that, it’s likely that the official records and divisional standings will correct themselves in the coming weeks.

Or perhaps Not Lucky will capitalize on this great start and make their way into their first playoff appearance!

#5 - Bling Bling

Sitting at 2-2 given that overall win ratio and PPG feels pretty bad. That’s fantasy football, though, and the good news for them is that they’ve got an extra regular season game this year to mount a comeback.

#4 - Kali Warriors

The only stats putting me at #4 instead of #5 is my record and better consistency metric than BB. Things look pretty positive for my team this year, but will that translate into a postseason appearance? Or will it be taken from me in the final week? Probably the latter

#3 - Winged Hussars

Unlike last season, when the Winged Hussars crawled into the playoffs with a losing record (6-7), they look poised to put together a very strong season. Their PPG isn’t as flashy as the Tricksters or Bling Bling, but they sit at #1 in terms of consistency, putting up good numbers week-to-week.

#2 - speed-demons

Even possessing the only remaining undefeated record isn’t enough to topple the former champions from their place at the #1 spot. At this point in the season it’s looking likely that both the Tricksters and speed-demons will find their way into the playoffs, but there’s still plenty of season left.

#1 - Tricksters

The only team with single-digit overall losses and sitting atop the PPG ladder, the Tricksters seem like a lock for the postseason, if not a third consecutive championship appearance.

Luck Chart

And finally, everyone’s favorite chart validating their feelings of being screwed by the schedule.

(Top: most lucky – bottom: least lucky)

Weekly Update

Title Belt

In Week 5, Necessary Roughness took the title belt from Kali Warriors. This week they look to defend the title from The Death Eaters.

Scoring by Division

Cerberus continues to lead the league in wins while trailing the league in everything else. #Efficiency

Points Leaders

Points For

Manager Ranking

Here’s the current grade for each team based on how well they managed their starting lineup throughout the season.

Power Rankings Table

Power Rankings Over Time

{
  "type": "line",
  "data": {
    "labels":["W1","W2","W3", "W4", "W5", "W6"],
    "datasets":[
      {
        "borderColor": "#800000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[2,2,1,4,3,5],
        "label":"Kali Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#e6194B",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[12,6,10,11,11,10],
        "label":"The Death Eaters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f58231",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[5,5,5,5,4,3],
        "label":"Red Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#808000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[10,8,4,7,7,8],
        "label":"speed-demons"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#bfef45",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[1,1,3,2,1,1],
        "label":"Tricksters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#3cb44b",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[6,7,9,10,9,9],
        "label":"Necessary Roughness"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#4363d8",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[3,9,6,6,5,4],
        "label":"Bling Bling"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#911eb4",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[7,4,8,8,10,11],
        "label":"Not Lucky"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f032e6",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[4,3,2,1,2,2],
        "label":"Detroit Wolverines"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#000000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[9,10,7,3,6,6],
        "label":"Pegasus"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#aaffc3",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[8,12,12,12,12,12],
        "label":"Golden Eagles"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#469990",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[11,11,11,9,8,7],
        "label":"Winged Hussars"
      }
    ]
  },
  "options": {
    "elements": {
      "line": {
        "tension": 0
      }
    },
    "scales": {
      "yAxes": [{
          "stacked": false,
          "ticks": {
            "reverse": true,
            "min": 1
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}

Notes:

• After a very poor performance, Kali Warriors plunges further in the power rankings, despite sitting at 4-1. I wager luck may be running out for me, but we’ll see what the next few weeks bring with McCaffrey’s return soon and Alexander Mattison’s temporary lead back role.
• Tricksters and Detroit Wolverines are battling for that top spot, but Tricksters’ consistently lights-out performances mean that for the time being they have that #1 ranking on lock.
• Not Lucky has tanked down to #11, and they threaten to disrupt the Golden Eagles’ 5-week streak of being at the bottom. We’ll have to see who underperforms harder.
• Keep an eye on Winged Hussars; they’ve crept up the rankings and in terms of overall wins and PPG, they match their division leader, Pegasus.

Playoff Odds

Columns 1-6 represent each seed and the given team’s chances of getting that particular seed.

Notes:

• While, of course, anything can happen, it’s difficult to see this simulation being wrong about the Tricksters and Wolverines being locked in for a playoff berth. Even if one of them manages to lose their division, they also lead the rest of the league in Points For by a pretty wide margin, so at the very least they’d get a 6 seed, barring complete and total implosion in the upcoming weeks.
• The Red Warriors have surged up by 40% after a couple good performances on their part and a couple bad performances on division rival Kali Warriors’ part.
• Pegasus is falling as the Winged Hussars slowly rise 👀

Remainder of Schedule Calculations

Here’s a breakdown of what odds the simulation gave for each team in each matchup for the remainder of the season. At the very least, this should give you an idea of how difficult the rest of your season looks.

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Week 10

Week 11

Week 12

Week 13

Team Breakdowns by Division

Cerberus

We are such a bad division. Luckiest division in the league, baby!

The Resistance

The Tricksters this year are a serious force to be reckoned with. Super Bowl hangover? Pfft.

I would say the rest of their division isn’t great, but they still on average outperform Cerberus in PPG.

Division by Zero

Division by Zero isn’t quite the powerhouse division it was last season, but the Detroit Wolverines are at least doing their part to uphold the division’s fierce reputation. The Wolverines’ turnaround since the league’s inception has been exciting to watch; at one point early last season they were at the bottom of the Power Rankings for two straight weeks before climbing up and making the playoffs.

Now they look to be on a collision course with former champion the Tricksters in the postseason.

The High Flyers

Each week as I look at the sad state of the High Flyers division, I have to remind myself that Pegasus made it to the championship game last season and nearly won. Once you’re in the playoffs, all bets are off. Despite this division underperforming, whoever gets that coveted divisional seed very well may be this year’s Super Bowl champs.

Luck Chart

Cerberus tops the chart as the undisputed luckiest division in the league. The Tricksters’ luck has bounced back to perfect balance, while division-mate speed-demons sits at the bottom with an unlucky 1-4 record.

Good luck in Week 6!

Weekly Update

Title Belt

In a tense contest of who-can-possibly-score-lower-than-that, Kali Warriors defended their title from The Death Eaters. They defend it from Golden Eagles in Week 4.

Scoring by Division

With the lowest PF and Average PPG in the league, Cerberus leads the league in total wins. And with the highest PF and Average PPG in the league, The Resistance sits at dead last, having lost every single non-divisional game in the first three weeks. Simply incredible.

Points Leaders

Points For

Manager Ranking

Here’s the current grade for each team based on how well they managed their starting lineup throughout the season.

Kali Warriors’ and Not Lucky’s Max PFs are fairly impressive, but their ability to predict which players will score well is not.

Power Rankings Table

Update

This week I’ve introduced another factor in the power ranking calculation: playoff chances. Based on my Monte Carlo simulation (introduced last season–more on that below), whatever chances you have of making the playoffs factor into your power ranking. Not as highly as wins, overall wins, or points for, but it factors in.

Power Rankings Over Time

{
  "type": "line",
  "data": {
    "labels":["PS","W1","W2","W3"],
    "datasets":[
      {
        "borderColor": "#800000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[2,2,1,4],
        "label":"Kali Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#e6194B",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[12,6,10,11],
        "label":"The Death Eaters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f58231",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[5,5,5,5],
        "label":"Red Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#808000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[10,8,4,7],
        "label":"speed-demons"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#bfef45",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[1,1,3,2],
        "label":"Tricksters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#3cb44b",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[6,7,9,10],
        "label":"Necessary Roughness"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#4363d8",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[3,9,6,6],
        "label":"Bling Bling"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#911eb4",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[7,4,8,8],
        "label":"Not Lucky"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f032e6",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[4,3,2,1],
        "label":"Detroit Wolverines"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#000000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[9,10,7,3],
        "label":"Pegasus"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#aaffc3",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[8,12,12,12],
        "label":"Golden Eagles"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#469990",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[11,11,11,9],
        "label":"Winged Hussars"
      }
    ]
  },
  "options": {
    "elements": {
      "line": {
        "tension": 0
      }
    },
    "scales": {
      "yAxes": [{
          "stacked": false,
          "ticks": {
            "reverse": true,
            "min": 1
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}

Notes:

• As predicted, Kali Warriors did not hold the top spot for very long at all. After a pathetic showing last week, they drop 3 spots and take the rightful crown as the worst undefeated team in the league.
• Prior to the start of the season, The Death Eaters was projected by experts as the worst roster in the league, and after a hot start have made their way back down, closer to that projection.
• Pegasus continues to baffle fantasy talking heads, rocketing up 4 spots to #3 despite having the 11th ranked roster.

Playoff Odds

You may recall from last year that I scripted out a Monte Carlo simulation to sim out the remainder of the season 10000 times using the trimmed mean and standard deviation of each team’s points scored in the weeks prior, generating scores for each week based on a normal distribution.

Well, since a trimmed mean and standard deviation would mean we’d be working with a sample size of one, I decided not to trim and just run based on how each team has scored so far. Here’s the summary of the results:

Columns 1-6 represent each seed and the given team’s chances of getting that particular seed.

Obvious disclaimer is obvious: this season has been absolutely bonkers, and even with the larger sample size at the end of last season, this simulation got some things very wrong because of some key upsets. BUT, it’s still fun to look at.

Remainder of Schedule Calculations

Here’s a breakdown of what odds the simulation gave for each team in each matchup for the remainder of the season. At the very least, this should give you an idea of how difficult the rest of your season looks.

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Week 10

Week 11

Week 12

Week 13

Team Breakdowns by Division

Cerberus

Not a lot to say here. As a division, Cerberus is pretty bad compared to the rest of the league, except for where it counts. 😎

The Resistance

I have to talk about Necessary Roughness here. They are the epitome of average so far this season. Not only is their PPG only 0.18 from being identical to the league average, but the difference between their highest and lowest score is 5.28 points. The standard deviation of their scores is 2.91; the league average is 25.5.

It sucks for them, but it’s still super neat.

Division by Zero

Both the Wolverines and Bling Bling have tough matchups this week against the Tricksters and speed-demons respectively. It’ll be interesting to see if Detroit continues to run away with the division or if Bling Bling and/or Not Lucky will start to close that gap.

The High Flyers

Despite the Hussars’ 1-2 record, the gap between them and Pegasus is not so wide. Sure, their sole win was against the undisputed worst team in the league, but they won while also putting up the highest score that week. The potential is obviously there for big wins; the question is whether those big wins will happen against more powerful teams.

Luck Chart

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Kali Warriors sits atop the luck chart after winning Week 3 with the 3rd lowest score of the week.

And despite being the most average team in the league, Necessary Roughness’ record fails to reflect that (as closely as it could with 3 games recorded, anyway).

On to Week 4!

New Records

Last week saw a new broken record that I wanted to highlight.

Least Points Scored in a Single Game

The Death Eaters set a new league record for least points scored in a game last week with an 83.3 after stat corrections. Woof.

Honorable mention: in the same week, the Golden Eagles scored the 3rd-lowest single game score at 96.28.

Weekly Update

Title Belt

The Tricksters successfully defended their title in Week 1, but after some key stat corrections on Thursday morning, the Kali Warriors broke their 6-game streak. The Kali Warriors look to defend it against division rival The Death Eaters in Week 3.

Scoring by Division

Division by Zero was a powerhouse division last season, and they’re starting off very strong this year, too, at least as far as actual wins are concerned. The Resistance might be low on wins, but they’re dominating in Points For and Average PPG.

Points Leaders

Points For

The Tricksters, who clinched the #6 seed last year (the one based on PF), is proving it wasn’t a fluke and has started the season incredibly strongly.

Manager Ranking

Here’s the current grade for each team based on how well they’ve managed their starting lineup throughout the season.

Power Rankings

I know what you’re thinking. “Wait, how is Kali still on top? His two starting RBs just went down!”

Yeah, it’s kinda weird. Two main factors are contributing to that ranking:

1. My ROS Roster per FantasyPros is still second, but that primarily has to do with my defensive players, which are ranked highly. My positional strength at RB tanked from #1 to #9.
2. I’m one of three undefeated teams with a decent overall wins record, which both contribute significantly to Power Ranking (which is why Detroit is also up there).

I don’t anticipate being up there for too long. But who knows? Fantasy is weird.

Power Rankings Over Time

{
  "type": "line",
  "data": {
    "labels":["PS","W1","W2"],
    "datasets":[
      {
        "borderColor": "#800000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[2,2,1],
        "label":"Kali Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#e6194B",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[12,6,10],
        "label":"The Death Eaters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f58231",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[5,5,5],
        "label":"Red Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#808000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[10,8,4],
        "label":"speed-demons"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#bfef45",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[1,1,3],
        "label":"Tricksters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#3cb44b",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[6,7,9],
        "label":"Necessary Roughness"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#4363d8",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[3,9,6],
        "label":"Bling Bling"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#911eb4",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[7,4,8],
        "label":"Not Lucky"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f032e6",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[4,3,2],
        "label":"Detroit Wolverines"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#000000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[9,10,7],
        "label":"Pegasus"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#aaffc3",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[8,12,12],
        "label":"Golden Eagles"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#469990",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[11,11,11],
        "label":"Winged Hussars"
      }
    ]
  },
  "options": {
    "elements": {
      "line": {
        "tension": 0
      }
    },
    "scales": {
      "yAxes": [{
          "stacked": false,
          "ticks": {
            "reverse": true,
            "min": 1
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}

Interesting notes:

• 3 of the top 4 projected teams going into the season have roughly held position after a couple weeks. The exception being Bling Bling, who after a rough Week 1 plummeted to the 9th position before rebounding a bit back up to 6.
• The speed-demons have climbed the most from their starting position after an impressive Week 2, going from #10 to #4.

Team Breakdowns by Division

Cerberus

The two teams of warriors have started the year pretty well relative to the rest of the league, and certainly relative to division-mate The Death Eaters, who at least has a win under their belt.

The Resistance

The Resistance is the only division where every member is performing above the league average. I don’t want to spoil the luck chart below, but as a division, they’ve really gotten the short end of the stick in the luck department, with Tricksters and speed-demons just barely losing their non-divisional games.

Division by Zero

Unlike The Resistance, DBZ has won both of their non-divisional matchups in weeks 1 and 2, which puts them ahead in terms of actual wins, despite not being anywhere close to The Resistance points-wise. It’ll be interesting to see how the next several weeks turn out for these two divisions.

The High Flyers

The High Flyers are continuing last season’s trend of mostly not flying high. Pegasus continues to be the dominant team in the division, but among other division leaders, they stand at last in PPG. Last season taught us not to underestimate Pegasus, though, as they just barely missed the championship title. Even though their Overall Wins and Points For aren’t the most impressive, a 2-0 record is a 2-0 record.

Luck Chart

Ah, the luck chart. Even though the Tricksters aren’t technically at the bottom, it feels like they’re the real unlucky team, being 17-5 overall and a whopping 45.8 PPG above the league average. Outperforming every current undefeated team in the first two weeks, yet stands at 1-1.

Gotta love fantasy.

Announcements

Official Congratulations

First off, official congratulations are long overdue for the 2019 season champions, the Tricksters! The championship game against Pegasus ended up being extremely close, but after barely claiming the 6th seed, the Tricksters swept through the playoffs and claimed their title.

New Records Page

I’ve added a new Records page to the nav bar, where you’ll find various records/all-time stats from the league, including league and divisional champions, most PF in a season, most points scored in a single game, and head-to-head records for each team (so you can see how you’ve performed against every other team throughout the seasons).

Title Belt Refresher

The Tricksters have held the title belt for 5 straight weeks, carrying it into the championship. This week they defend it from none other than Necessary Roughness.

Team Power Rankings by the “Experts”

Based on FantasyPros’ expert aggregator, here’s how our teams stack up after the draft.

Notes

• Of course, take these rankings with the grainiest of grains of salt, as we don’t know that much about the rookies this year, and they seem to be perpetually down on Pegasus, despite that team performing reasonably strongly last season, barely getting beaten out by the Tricksters in the championship. I give their rankings a relatively low weighting in my Power Ranking calculations, but at this point it’s all we have to go off of. So suck it nerds, I’m better than all of you

Matchup Preview

Kali Warriors vs. Red Warriors

Projected Winner

Last year, the Red Warriors played a key role in keeping Kali Warriors from a playoff berth in the home stretch of the season, so KW is out for revenge.

The Death Eaters vs. speed-demons

Projected Winner

Not much to say here. speed-demons are the favorites by a wide margin, and a win here would even the score between themselves and The Death Eaters, who beat them in their sole matchup last season.

Tricksters vs. Necessary Roughness (Title Belt Match)

Projected Winner

The reigning champs are undefeated against their division, and this week is looking to continue that streak (and the current longest Title Belt streak held by the Tricksters).

Bling Bling vs. Detroit Wolverines

Projections

Arguably the rivalry in Division by Zero, this matchup could truly go either way. Both teams are very strong, and each of them has beaten the other once (in the regular season), for a 50% win-loss percentage. I’ll be watching this closely to see who pulls out ahead in this bout of rivals.

Golden Eagles vs. Pegasus

Projected Winner

Pegasus is undefeated against the Golden Eagles, and that streak shows no signs of stopping this week. Golden Eagles’ only significant positional advantages are at TE and DL, with Zach Ertz, Gronk, Nick Bosa, and Fletcher Cox in the lineup. It’ll be interesting to see just how well Gronk plays given the pretty penny the Eagles spent on him.

Winged Hussars vs. Not Lucky

Projected Winner

Sleeper has Not Lucky winning this matchup by a decent margin, but it could be deceptively close. The Hussars are stronger on the defensive side of the ball (excepting Jamal Adams), and Not Lucky is stronger on the offensive side of the ball (mainly excepting Mahomes). Not Lucky won their sole matchup last season and looks to stay undefeated, but an upset here is certainly possible.

This week we’re going to take a look at the strengths and weaknesses of each of the playoff teams. But first, let’s see how everyone else ranks up.

Regular Season Rankings

Note: The Rank Change column shows the change from last week, not from the last time these rankings were published.

Overall

Tricksters pull off a miraculous comeback to take the #6 seed. Pegasus also moves up after looking much better the last few weeks.

Offense

Bling Bling reclaims their top from Not Lucky. In Week 13, Not Lucky had the lowest total offensive points of any team with just 75.66 points, which is probably why they lost their all-but-guaranteed playoff spot.

QB

Tricksters are probably the most surprising team to finish in the Top 3 following solid stats from both Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. For most of the season, they sat around the rank 6 mark. We’ll see if that lasts through Week 16.

RB

The most interesting stat to me is how many teams earned a failing grade at RB. There’s a very top heavy class of running backs and a few teams (not pointing any fingers) have horded them.

WR

Bling Bling comes out of nowhere to take the number one spot at WR. I guess trading for Golladay seems to have worked out for them.

TE

Oh the woes of trying to get a good TE. Necessary Roughness has three times as many points from TEs as Bling Bling. One of those teams has the number one overall playoff seed.

Defense

Pegasus closes the gap between them and Bling Bling. Meanwhile the Golden Eagles fall hard and fast.

DL

Tricksters manage to dethrone Not Lucky in more ways than one. This time earning the #1 spot at DL.

LB

Bling Bling is number one at yet another position.

DB

The Winged Hussars reign at DB is now long forgotten and the Golden Eagles reign has only begun. There’s still a lot of catching up to do for the other teams.

Playoff Team Comparisons

To gives us a better idea of how teams are doing right now, in this section I’ve compared the league rankings of the last four weeks to the whole season for each of the six playoff teams. For each category, the first number is what that teams ranks among all other teams only counting points scored in Weeks 10-13. The second number shows the difference between that rank and what their rank on the entire season is thus far.

(1) Bling Bling

Overall: 5, -4

Offense: 2, -1

QB: 12, 0

RB: 1, 0

WR: 1, 0

TE: 12, 0

Defense: 8, -7

DL: 8, -2

LB: 7, -1

DB: 5, -1

Bling Bling has not looked like favorite these last four weeks. They’ve been particularly poor on defense. They are still dominant at RB and WR, which could carry them to the Championship game. They’ve got an extra week to turn things around before they start competing, which could be in their favor. While they are ranked 5 in the last four weeks, that’s still better than two other playoff teams, so they’re not alone in end-of-season troubles.

(2) Pegasus

Overall: 1, +5

Offense: 1, +7

QB: 1, 0

RB: 9, -1

WR: 2, +4

TE: 7, +1

Defense: 2, 0

DL: 2, +1

LB: 1, +2

DB: 12, 0

Pegasus ends their season just like they began. Unlike Bling Bling, they’ve continued to do very well on defense, and have surged back to Week 1 levels on offense. If matchups were favorable, I’d say they were the most likely to make it to the Championship game, but they have a chance to face a rallying Tricksters for their first game after the bye.

(3) speed-demons

Overall: 6, +1

Offense: 6, -1

QB: 3, -1

RB: 3, +2

WR: 11, -3

TE: 8, -6

Defense: 7, -1

DL: 11, +1

LB: 2, 0

DB: 8, 0

At the number three seed is probably the most middle-of-the-road playoff team. The speed-demons have a lot of weaknesses, and benefit from being really good in important positions like QB, RB, and LB, but they struggle in filling out their team with talent. I vote them as “Most Likely to Lose in the First Round,” but that’s mostly because they play a formidable Tricksters whom they’ve lost to twice already this season.

(4) Total domination

Overall: 9, -1

Offense: 4, +3

QB: 7, +1

RB: 11, -2

WR: 4, -1

TE: 2, +2

Defense: 10, +1

DL: 6, +2

LB: 10, 0

DB: 6, +3

Total domination can thank Lady Luck for granting them a playoff spot. Going to the last four weeks without being the favorite to win their division, and ranking 9th in overall points over those last four weeks, and still winning their division is borderline divine intervention. How long will it take before their luck runs out?

(5) Detroit Wolverines

Overall: 3, +2

Offense: 5, -1

QB: 11, -5

RB: 4, 0

WR: 5, 0

TE: 3, -2

Defense: 4, +4

DL: 3, +1

LB: 3, +4

DB: 10, 0

Detroit Wolverines were my pick to win the championship, and so far they look like they have a real shot. They first have to overcome a very lucky Total domination, and then beat an underperforming Bling Bling. Thanks to a surging defense, they have a real shot at the trophy. If Deshaun Watson can pull through for them, they might just win the whole thing.

(6) Tricksters

Overall: 2, 0

Offense: 3, -1

QB: 2, -1

RB: 5, +1

WR: 9, -7

TE: 6, +3

Defense: 1, +3

DL: 1, 0

LB: 4, +2

DB: 6, 0

There’s no doubt in my mind, Tricksters deserve to be in the playoffs. You could argue that Kali Warriors and Not Lucky should be here as well, but fantasy football for you. They have a favorable matchup against their division rival speed-demons, but then the road to glory gets really tough against a very good Pegasus. The biggest concern is how poorly they’ve done at WR the last few weeks. If they could turn that around, I’d be much more confident about their chances.

How My Predictions Are Fairing

In Week 10 I predicted this is how the final seeding would work out:

(1) Bling Bling

(2) Kali Warriors

(3) Pegasus

(4) speed-demons

(5) Detroit Wolverines

(6) Not Lucky

This is how it actually ended up:

(1) Bling Bling

(2) Pegasus

(3) speed-demons

(4) Total domination

(5) Detroit Wolverines

(6) Tricksters

Looking at it, if Kali Warriors win their division, I’d be 5/6. I also said Detroit Wolverines would win the championship, which I’m still cautiously optimistic about.

Current Playoff Seeds

If the current projections roughly hold, here’s who would make the playoffs.

(Parentheses beside team name contain the projected record and projected Points For after the games complete)

*Ties broken by Points For.

The teams listed above are hoping that Sleeper’s projections come to fruition. If they do, those seeds would be secured. Below, I’ll talk about what other teams in the race are hoping for instead.

Teams in the Hunt

Following what I did in the above table, each team will have their projected record and Points For next to their name.

Kali Warriors (6-7, 2249.56)

The Kali Warriors are so close to a playoff berth. With a projected 2249.56 Points For when all is said and done, they would only be 20.1 points shy of the #6 seed. Here are the possible outcomes Kali Warriors is hoping for tonight.

• The Tricksters’ score is locked in (barring stat corrections), so 2269.66 is the bar to reach. Kali Warriors needs their two remaining players to outscore their projections by at least 20.1 points and for other teams’ projections to roughly hold true. Their last two players are fully capable of doing that–Bobby Wagner and Everson Griffen have shown that they can put up big numbers.
  • They’ll be watching Not Lucky very closely; as long as Tyler Lockett doesn’t go nuclear tonight, Not Lucky won’t be a threat (at least not any more of a threat than the Tricksters are).
• Alternatively, if the Golden Eagles pull off an upset tonight (which is definitely possible with players like Stefon Diggs and Jadeveon Clowney yet to play), the speed-demons would be knocked out of their division lead, freeing up the #6 seed, since the Tricksters would then claim the division.
  • This would leave the competition for #6 mainly to Not Lucky and Kali Warriors, and Not Lucky’s projected 2252.04 PF is a much lower bar to clear for Kali Warriors.

Not Lucky (7-6, 2252.04)

Not Lucky is similarly so close to a playoff berth. With their projections, they would only be 17.62 points shy of the #6 seed.

• Not Lucky is pretty much hoping for the same thing the Kali Warriors are. They want Lockett to go nuclear tonight and score 31.28 points and for Kali Warriors’ projections to hold true. That number is definitely within reach for a stud WR; the question is whether Lockett will be able to pull it off, as he’s been dealing with a leg injury in recent weeks. He’s supposedly back to full strength, but that remains to be seen.
• Not Lucky is also otherwise hoping for a Golden Eagles upset tonight; if that upset happens and everyone else’s projections hold true, Not Lucky would be the one to claim the coveted #6 seed.

I don’t know about you guys, but I’ll be glued to the TV tonight. See you on the other side!

Weekly Status Update

Current Playoff Seeds

If the playoff seeds were calculated today, here’s who would make the cut.

*Ties broken by Points For.

With Total domination taking the division lead in Cerberus, Kali Warriors fall down to the 6th WC seed. The speed-demons extend their lead over the Tricksters, whose playoff hopes are beginning to seriously falter.

Title Belt

speed-demons has DEFENDED the title belt from Necessary Roughness after winning their Week 11 matchup! They’re on a 3-week streak!

speed-demons will be defending the title from the Tricksters in this week’s upcoming divisional matchup.

Scoring by Division

Overall Wins by Week

Points Leaders

Points For

With Total domination claiming the division lead in Cerberus, the competition for the #6 wildcard seed just got a lot more interesting. So much hinges on whether Not Lucky claims the #5 wildcard seed at the end of the regular season.

Max Points For

Manager Ranking

Power Rankings

Table

Over Time

{
  "type": "line",
  "data": {
    "labels":["PS","W1","W2", "W3", "W4", "W5", "W6","W7", "W8", "W9", "W10", "W11", "W12"],
    "datasets":[
      {
        "borderColor": "#800000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[1,1,4,2,6,5,4,2,2,2,1,2,5],
        "label":"Kali Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#e6194B",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[4,4,8,7,8,7,6,5,5,5,8,7,8],
        "label":"The Death Eaters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f58231",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[11,11,12,11,9,12,12,12,12,11,11,12,11],
        "label":"Red Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#808000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[8,8,1,5,4,6,7,6,6,6,5,4,3],
        "label":"speed-demons"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#bfef45",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[2,2,5,4,3,4,5,3,3,3,3,6,6],
        "label":"Tricksters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#3cb44b",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[9,9,9,10,11,10,11,10,9,7,7,8,9],
        "label":"Necessary Roughness"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#4363d8",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[3,3,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,2],
        "label":"Bling Bling"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#911eb4",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[7,7,6,6,5,3,3,7,4,8,6,5,4],
        "label":"Not Lucky"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f032e6",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[6,6,10,12,12,11,10,9,8,4,4,3,1],
        "label":"Detroit Wolverines"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#000000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[10,10,3,3,2,2,2,4,7,9,9,9,7],
        "label":"Pegasus"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#aaffc3",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[12,12,7,9,10,8,8,8,10,10,10,11,12],
        "label":"Golden Eagles"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#469990",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[5,5,11,8,7,9,9,11,11,12,12,10,10],
        "label":"Winged Hussars"
      }
    ]
  },
  "options": {
    "elements": {
      "line": {
        "tension": 0
      }
    },
    "scales": {
      "yAxes": [{
          "stacked": false,
          "ticks": {
            "reverse": true,
            "min": 1
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}

Observations

After weeks of comfortably sitting in the top 2, the Kali Warriors have plunged to #5, the lowest position they’ve been in since Week 5. A season-low performance and 2-week losing streak will do that.

The Detroit Wolverines have truly made a remarkable turnaround to dominance since being at #12 in Weeks 3 and 4. They’re averaging 9.8 overall wins per week over the last 5 weeks (translation: on average they’ve been in the top-3 of scorers each week for the past 5 weeks)!

Pegasus has climbed back up a bit to #7 this week, which is an interesting position for the only team that’s clinched a playoff spot. Despite Pegasus’s dominant performance last week, the byes showed us just how flimsy that team’s depth chart is, and with Marlon Mack out for a while (and the possibility of other injuries to key players always looming), there is every possibility that Pegasus makes a swift exit from the bracket come Week 14.

ROS Roster Rankings Over Time

{
  "type": "line",
  "data": {
    "labels":["PS","W1","W2", "W3", "W4", "W5", "W6","W7", "W8", "W9", "W10", "W11", "W12"],
    "datasets":[
      {
        "borderColor": "#800000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[1,1,2,1,2,3,1,1,1,1,1,2],
        "label":"Kali Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#e6194B",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[4,4,4,6,7,7,7,7,7,6,8,9,8],
        "label":"The Death Eaters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f58231",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[11,11,12,10,10,9,10,11,11,12,11,12,12],
        "label":"Red Warriors"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#808000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[8,8,1,2,1,2,3,4,3,5,5,4,4],
        "label":"speed-demons"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#bfef45",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[2,2,8,4,4,4,5,3,5,3,2,5,1],
        "label":"Tricksters"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#3cb44b",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[9,9,5,7,8,8,8,10,9,8,6,6,7],
        "label":"Necessary Roughness"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#4363d8",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[3,3,3,3,3,1,2,2,2,2,3,2,5],
        "label":"Bling Bling"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#911eb4",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[7,7,6,5,5,5,4,9,8,10,9,8,9],
        "label":"Not Lucky"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#f032e6",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[6,6,7,11,11,10,9,5,4,4,4,3,3],
        "label":"Detroit Wolverines"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#000000",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[10,10,9,8,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,6],
        "label":"Pegasus"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#aaffc3",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[12,12,11,12,12,11,11,8,10,9,10,11,11],
        "label":"Golden Eagles"
      },
      {
        "borderColor": "#469990",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[5,5,10,9,9,12,12,12,12,11,12,10,10],
        "label":"Winged Hussars"
      }
    ]
  },
  "options": {
    "elements": {
      "line": {
        "tension": 0
      }
    },
    "scales": {
      "yAxes": [{
          "stacked": false,
          "ticks": {
            "reverse": true,
            "min": 1
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}

Playoff Probabilities

Methodology

I took the upcoming schedule and ran it through a Monte Carlo simulation, simulating 100,000 different regular season outcomes.

It’s not sophisticated; it doesn’t factor in upcoming BYE weeks or consider the different matchups players on each roster have that might produce extraordinary games.

Here’s what it does right now:

• Takes each team and computes a truncated mean and standard deviation for their point totals scored throughout the season.
  • I’m truncating the scores by removing each team’s lowest and highest score from the mean.
• Goes through each week and simulates a matchup by generating a random score for each team in the matchup. This random score is generated assuming a normal distribution and is based on the truncated mean and standard deviation for the team.
• After simulating the rest of the season, it calculates the playoff seeding for the results and records them.

Since it doesn’t take future BYE weeks into account that would potentially factor into future upsets, it’s obviously not a perfect simulation. But it does give you an idea for how difficult your coming schedule is.

Probability Table

Ordered by probability.

Quick note:

• Change is the change in each team’s Playoff Chance compared to when this was run last week.

Observations

• After upsetting (in multiple senses) division rival Kali Warriors last week, Total domination’s playoff chances have increased dramatically.
• Meanwhile, the Kali Warriors’ chances have continued to drop. After losing a key matchup against Total domination, the Kali Warriors are looking toward a wildcard seed as their best hope for a playoff berth.
• The Tricksters have the most tenuous grasp on their playoff dreams. They’re hoping for a miracle.
• Fun fact: Bling Bling’s exact playoff probability is at 99.991%, meaning that of the 100,000 simulated outcomes, there were 9 in which Bling Bling missed the playoffs entirely. I’m not a betting man, but I’d be willing to wager he’ll make it in.

Week 12 Matchups

Week 13 Matchups

Team by Team Breakdown - Paths to the Playoffs

In this section I’m going to focus on the teams that haven’t yet secured a playoff spot and break down their most likely path to a shot at glory.

Bling Bling (99.99%)

Their most likely path to the playoffs is pretty straightforward. Win this week, and they’ve pretty much done it. They face division rival Not Lucky this week, so a win this week means they quash their biggest divisional threat. Even if the Wolverines win their matchup against Total domination, the point lead Bling Bling has on the Wolverines (113.82) is so large that it is extremely unlikely the Wolverines would be able to bridge that gap after Week 13.

Not Lucky (95.83%)

While a division seed is definitely possible, it’s not very likely at this point. Not Lucky has a couple very difficult matchups coming up the next couple weeks against their division rivals. Lucky for them, their position in the PF rankings mean if they don’t manage to get the #5 seed, they’ll probably get the #6. Other teams will be watching Not Lucky closely to see where they fall, since that has implications for other teams currently in the race.

speed-demons (92.31%)

The speed-demons need only win one of the next two matchups to block the Tricksters out of a divisional seed. Lucky for them, they have the Golden Eagles in Week 13, a team that has looked very beatable.

Kali Warriors (76.25%)

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Kali Warriors. Speaking as the team’s owner, when my star DL Myles Garrett bludgeoned Mason Rudolph with his own helmet, it felt like he was doing that to me. Or rather, my playoff dreams. While a playoff berth is far from out of the realm of possibility, that particular loss hurt pretty badly.

There are a few scenarios in which KW makes the playoffs:

• Total domination loses their next two games, and Kali Warriors wins at least one.
  • Fortunately for KW, they face the Red Warriors this week, so a win is pretty likely.
  • Unfortunately for KW, Total domination also faces the Red Warriors, except in two weeks.
• KW wins out, and Total domination loses one of the next two games.
  • Tough proposition for the Warriors, who face Bling Bling in two weeks.
• KW gets a wildcard seed.
  • Sitting at #3 in Points For on the season really helps their chances. If Not Lucky gets the #5 seed, KW would be the current recipient for #6. If they can manage to bridge the 28.44-point gap between themselves and Not Lucky, they’d get the #6 seed no matter what.

Total domination (66.68%)

The entirety of Total domination’s playoff chances depend on securing the divisional title. The odds of accomplishing that are pretty good at this point, after a key Week 11 victory.

All they need to do at this point to win the division is to win as many games as division rival Kali Warriors does in the remaining weeks of the season. Their only shot at winning the division is to make sure they remain a game ahead of Kali Warriors, since their PF is substantially lower than KW’s.

Detroit Wolverines (48.99%)

If the Wolverines are the Cinderella story of this season, does that make Not Lucky their fairy godmother? 🤔 Of course, Dalvin Cook isn’t the sole reason for their success, but it would be fair to say he’s the team’s MVP.

Despite the Wolverines’ tremendous recent success, they’re still on an uncertain path to the playoffs. Their best shot at a playoff seed is securing the #5 wildcard seed.

Their biggest competition for that seed are:

• Total domination (7-4)
  • DW probably wants TD to win their division, since DW is currently a game ahead of the Kali Warriors (6-5) and should be able to maintain that lead.
• Kali Warriors
  • DW just needs to win as many games as KW does to maintain the lead on them.
• Not Lucky
  • Given the large PF lead NL has on DW, DW needs to win one more game than NL does.
  • DW should be able to win their matchup this week against Total domination, while NL has a tougher matchup against Bling Bling. If DW gets a game ahead of NL this week, they would just need to beat NL in Week 13.
• speed-demons
  • DW wants the speed-demons to win their division, which is a pretty likely prospect.
• Tricksters
  • The Tricksters are only a threat if they win out and DW loses out. Unlikely threat.

Tricksters (19.96%)

It’s been a tough past few weeks for the Tricksters. Right now, their outlook for the postseason is pretty grim.

Here are their playoff scenarios:

• They beat speed-demons this week, and the speed-demons lose to the Golden Eagles next week.
  • Winning this week is very doable, but it’s difficult to count on the Golden Eagles winning right now.
• Not Lucky gets the #5 seed, and the Tricksters bridge the 31.82-point gap between themselves and the Kali Warriors.

It doesn’t look good, but as always, anything can happen!

Luck Chart

This pretty much tracks with how team luck has felt. The Tricksters have gotten the short end of the stick in terms of luck; they lead the league in Points Against, and given their overall wins, their record should be somewhere between 6 and 7 wins. Losing even one game unfairly really hurts them, since that one game is the difference between a more probable divisional title and missing the playoffs entirely.

The Winged Hussars are the unluckiest team, but at this point, that’s probably circled back to being lucky, given that this helps his draft position next year.

Good luck in Week 12!

Overall Rankings

Week 11 Pegasus looks a lot like Week 1 Pegasus. With that performance they clinch their division this week, as if that was ever in doubt. Bling Bling had a scare this week. They are within a very reachable distance from Not Lucky in overall points scored and Kali Warriors have an outside shot at overtaking them as well. It’s a pretty small chance that they would miss a Wild Card spot, but still. Got to be a little nerve-wracking.

Offense

Not Lucky gets their spot back after Bling Bling and Detroit Wolverines had a less-than-stellar week. Pegasus meanwhile climbs their way from the depths.

QB

This week was very strange week at QB. Many of the top QBs underperformed and some unexpected ones had a big day. The unexpected being Josh Allen who was 21/33 for 256 yards and 3 TDs, not to mention 56 rushing yards and a rushing TD. Unfortunately for the Tricksters it was not enough to beat Pegasus, and their playoff chances are looking pretty grim.

RB

Nothing much to say here. Can Kali Warriors overtake Bling Bling at RB? I mean, can it get up to 80 °F in Antartica? Sure, but it would take a lot of global warming.

WR

The Golden Eagles are clawing to get back their number one rank at WR. It may be too little too late. Kali Warriors prove their weakness at WR making them ranked 9th.

TE

There’s a ways to go before a newcomer can break into the top 4, which have stayed the same since Week 5. There’s still enough time for that to change though.

Defense

Do you remember when Pegasus was the number one defense in the league? Yeah me neither. But they’re now in a good spot to take it back. They haven’t held the number one spot since Week 4.

DL

Total domination had a nice showing at DL allowing them to move up two places. If I had to break this position down into tiers, I’d make four of them. Winged Hussars, Red Warriors, and speed-demons are C tier. Pegasus, Total domination, Bling Bling, and Golden Eagles make up the B tier. Detroit Wolverines, Necessary Roughness, and Tricksters are A tier, while Kali Warriors and Not Lucky are S tier. Probably won’t see much movement between tiers before playoffs.

LB

The speed-demons overtake Bling Bling to earn the top spot at LB. This is the last position to see a lead change, and it comes after an abysmal showing from Bling Bling who have held the lead the entire season.

DB

Not Lucky rides their recent success to put them at second. The Golden Eagles are still a stretch away from them.

How My Predictions Are Fairing

Last week I made some playoff predictions. I said the seeds would end up as follows:

(1) Bling Bling, (2) Kali Warriors, (3) Pegasus, (4) speed-demons, (5) Detroit Wolverines, (6) Not Lucky

So far that seems to hold true. Except Total domination could completely screw up my predictions after they beat Kali Warriors this week. Kali Warriors hold the tie over Total domination, but they either need to beat Bling Bling in Week 13, or hope Red Warriors can upset The Death Eaters. This is assuming they beat Red Warriors this week and Total domination loses to the Detroit Wolverines. If Total domination does win the division, that would make a three-way fight for the second seed between them, Pegasus, and speed-demons. It would also make the Wild Card situation very interesting.

Other than Total domination I don’t think anyone else has a real shot at the playoffs. Tricksters have an outside chance, but they have to win their next two and have speed-demons lose out. Their matchup against speed-demons this week will be the decider.