Week 10 Newsletter

It’s a big week for the league! Make moves while you still can.

Weekly Status Update

Current Playoff Seeds

If the playoff seeds were calculated today, here’s who would make the cut.

Seed	Team Name	Criteria
1st	Bling Bling	Division winner with best record*
2nd	Kali Warriors	Division winner with second-best record*
3rd	Tricksters	Division winner with third-best record*
4th	Pegasus	Division winner with worst record*
5th	Not Lucky	Team with best record among remaining*
6th	Detroit Wolverines	Team with most points for among remaining

*Ties broken by Points For.

You know you’re a dominant division when every member currently would have a playoff seed.

Title Belt - New Belt Holder!

Bling Bling has LOST the title belt to speed-demons after losing their Week 9 matchup!

speed-demons will be defending the title from the Winged Hussars in this week’s upcoming matchup.

Scoring by Division

Rank	Division Name	Points For	Wins	Average PPG
1	Division By Zero	4790.62	17	177.43
2	The Resistance	4522.54	14	167.50
3	Cerberus	4265.48	14	157.98
4	High Flyers	4142.44	9	153.42

Overall Wins by Week

Team	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9
Kali Warriors	5-6	11-0	4-7	7-4	9-2	7-4	6-5	10-1	10-1
The Death Eaters	4-7	5-6	5-6	5-6	8-3	5-6	8-3	2-9	1-10
Red Warriors	0-11	2-9	7-4	0-11	0-11	2-9	1-10	4-7	7-4
speed-demons	10-1	3-8	8-3	1-10	3-8	9-2	7-4	5-6	6-5
Tricksters	7-4	7-4	3-8	10-1	5-6	11-0	4-7	6-5	9-2
Necessary Roughness	2-9	4-7	0-11	6-5	2-9	8-3	11-0	8-3	3-8
Bling Bling	8-3	10-1	9-2	11-0	11-0	6-5	5-6	11-0	5-6
Not Lucky	9-2	9-2	11-0	2-9	6-5	0-11	10-1	3-8	8-3
Detroit Wolverines	1-10	0-11	1-10	8-3	7-4	10-1	9-2	9-2	11-0
Pegasus	11-0	6-5	10-1	9-2	4-7	1-10	0-11	1-10	2-9
Golden Eagles	6-5	1-10	2-9	3-8	10-1	4-7	2-9	7-4	0-11
Winged Hussars	3-8	8-3	6-5	4-7	1-10	3-8	3-8	0-11	4-7

Points Leaders

Points For

Rank	Team Name	Points For	Change	Points Behind Lead	Points Behind Next Rank
1	Bling Bling	1673.16	0	0.00	0.00
2	Kali Warriors	1606.28	0	66.88	66.88
3	Not Lucky	1602.08	0	71.08	4.20
4	Tricksters	1552.58	0	120.58	49.50
5	Detroit Wolverines	1515.38	1	157.78	37.20
6	speed-demons	1508.14	-1	165.02	7.24
7	Necessary Roughness	1461.82	0	211.34	46.32
8	The Death Eaters	1445.54	0	227.62	16.28
9	Pegasus	1443.56	0	229.60	1.98
10	Golden Eagles	1365.40	0	307.76	78.16
11	Winged Hussars	1333.48	0	339.68	31.92
12	Red Warriors	1213.66	0	459.50	119.82

Only movement in Points For this week was the Detroit Wolverines scoring just enough to take the #5 spot. This is significant, since this gives the Wolverines the #6 playoff seed (if the playoffs started next week). The race is tight, and the Wolverines are looking to widen that gap between themselves and the speed-demons as the playoffs approach.

Max Points For

Rank	Team Name	Max PF
1	Not Lucky	2064.44
2	Detroit Wolverines	2019.40
3	Kali Warriors	2009.90
4	speed-demons	2003.58
5	Bling Bling	1986.76
6	Tricksters	1948.82
7	Necessary Roughness	1825.10
8	Golden Eagles	1795.58
9	Winged Hussars	1779.92
10	Pegasus	1750.04
11	The Death Eaters	1716.10
12	Red Warriors	1619.44

Manager Ranking

Rank	Team Name	Points For	Max PF	Manager Grade	Change
1	The Death Eaters	1445.54	1716.10	84.23%	2
2	Bling Bling	1673.16	1986.76	84.22%	-1
3	Pegasus	1443.56	1750.04	82.49%	-1
4	Necessary Roughness	1461.82	1825.10	80.10%	0
5	Kali Warriors	1606.28	2009.90	79.92%	0
6	Tricksters	1552.58	1948.82	79.67%	0
7	Not Lucky	1602.08	2064.44	77.60%	0
8	Golden Eagles	1365.40	1795.58	76.04%	0
9	speed-demons	1508.14	2003.58	75.27%	0
10	Detroit Wolverines	1515.38	2019.40	75.04%	1
11	Red Warriors	1213.66	1619.44	74.94%	1
12	Winged Hussars	1333.48	1779.92	74.92%	-2

---

Power Rankings

Table

TEAM NAME	RANK	CHANGE	RECORD	OVW	PPG	ROS ROSTER	CONS	OVW L5
Kali Warriors	#1	1	6-3	69-30	#2, 178ppg	#1	#2	42
Bling Bling	#2	-1	7-2	76-23	#1, 186ppg	#3	#4	38
Tricksters	#3	0	5-4	62-37	#4, 173ppg	#2	#1	35
Detroit Wolverines	#4	0	5-4	56-43	#5, 168ppg	#4	#8	46
speed-demons	#5	1	5-4	52-47	#6, 168ppg	#5	#3	30
Not Lucky	#6	2	5-4	58-41	#3, 178ppg	#9	#9	27
Necessary Roughness	#7	0	4-5	44-55	#7, 162ppg	#6	#5	32
The Death Eaters	#8	-3	5-4	43-56	#8, 161ppg	#8	#6	24
Pegasus	#9	0	5-4	44-55	#9, 160ppg	#7	#12	8
Golden Eagles	#10	0	3-6	35-64	#10, 152ppg	#10	#11	23
Red Warriors	#11	0	3-6	23-76	#12, 135ppg	#11	#10	14
Winged Hussars	#12	0	1-8	32-67	#11, 148ppg	#12	#7	11

Over Time

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        "data":[3,3,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2],
        "label":"Bling Bling"
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        "label":"Not Lucky"
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        "label":"Pegasus"
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        "fill": false,
        "data":[12,12,7,9,10,8,8,8,10,10,10],
        "label":"Golden Eagles"
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Observations

The most notable shake-up in the power rankings is Bling Bling losing the #1 spot after seven straight weeks holding it. The Kali Warriors threatened Bling’s throne for three weeks before finally managing to barely earn the #1 spot.

After suffering a tough loss against a team they were projected to win against (Pegasus), Total domination has falled three spots down to #8, undoing weeks of climbing the ranks to #5.

Total domination’s departure from the top-6 sees Not Lucky welcomed back into the fold, after a solid Week 9 performance.

ROS Roster Rankings Over Time

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        "borderColor": "#4363d8",
        "fill": false,
        "data":[3,3,3,3,3,1,2,2,2,2,3],
        "label":"Bling Bling"
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        "borderColor": "#911eb4",
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Playoff Probabilities

Methodology

I took the upcoming schedule and ran it through a Monte Carlo simulation, simulating 100,000 different regular season outcomes.

It’s not sophisticated; it doesn’t factor in upcoming BYE weeks or consider the different matchups players on each roster have that might produce extraordinary games.

Here’s what it does right now:

• Takes each team and computes a truncated mean and standard deviation for their point totals scored throughout the season.
  • I’m truncating the scores by removing each team’s lowest and highest score from the mean.
• Goes through each week and simulates a matchup by generating a random score for each team in the matchup. This random score is generated assuming a normal distribution and is based on the truncated mean and standard deviation for the team.
• After simulating the rest of the season, it calculates the playoff seeding for the results and records them.

Since it doesn’t take future BYE weeks into account that would potentially factor into future upsets, it’s obviously not a perfect simulation. But it does give you an idea for how difficult your coming schedule is.

Probability Table

Ordered by probability.

Quick note:

• Change is the change in each team’s Playoff Chance compared to when this was run last week.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance	Change
Bling Bling	86.16%	10.23%	1.18%	0.02%	2.28%	0.13%	100.00%	0.00%
Kali Warriors	12.84%	68.53%	13.46%	0.76%	1.02%	2.33%	98.94%	1.56%
Not Lucky	0.64%	0.88%	0.05%	0.00%	49.77%	46.69%	98.03%	2.85%
Pegasus	0.01%	1.83%	8.06%	85.27%	0.00%	0.00%	95.16%	12.41%
Tricksters	0.12%	11.34%	51.18%	5.78%	3.27%	15.95%	87.63%	4.45%
Detroit Wolverines	0.20%	0.58%	0.07%	0.00%	26.07%	29.06%	55.97%	16.86%
speed-demons	0.03%	5.17%	21.38%	2.56%	10.73%	5.72%	45.59%	17.18%
The Death Eaters	0.02%	1.34%	2.56%	0.49%	6.05%	0.00%	10.46%	-29.51%
Golden Eagles	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	4.82%	0.00%	0.00%	4.82%	-12.47%
Necessary Roughness	0.00%	0.10%	2.06%	0.28%	0.81%	0.12%	3.37%	-13.33%
Winged Hussars	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	-0.01%
Red Warriors	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Observations

• After losing a favored matchup against Pegasus, Total domination’s chances at a playoff run dropped significantly. Without enough points to contend for the #6 wild card spot, their best shot is looking to be the 5th seed, which is itself unlikely.
• On the other side, after a well-timed upset, Pegasus is looking good on top of their very poorly performing division. The 4th seed is looking well within their grasp.
• I find it hilarious that despite the Winged Hussars being 1-8, they still have a .02% chance at winning their division. They would need to win the next four games, and Pegasus would need to lose the next four games for that to happen.
• The Detroit Wolverines and the speed-demons will be the most interesting to watch these next four weeks; their playoff chances seem the most up-in-the-air.

Week 10 Matchups

Team 1	Team 2
Kali Warriors	Detroit Wolverines
56.19%	43.82%
Red Warriors	Bling Bling
2.60%	97.40%
Golden Eagles	The Death Eaters
35.97%	64.03%
Tricksters	Not Lucky
51.60%	48.40%
Winged Hussars	speed-demons
17.12%	82.88%
Necessary Roughness	Pegasus
55.24%	44.76%

Week 11 Matchups

Team 1	Team 2
Kali Warriors	The Death Eaters
83.30%	16.70%
Red Warriors	Not Lucky
5.52%	94.48%
Bling Bling	Detroit Wolverines
65.77%	34.23%
Tricksters	Pegasus
71.97%	28.03%
speed-demons	Necessary Roughness
59.59%	40.41%
Golden Eagles	Winged Hussars
49.56%	50.44%

Week 12 Matchups

Team 1	Team 2
Kali Warriors	Red Warriors
96.10%	3.90%
The Death Eaters	Detroit Wolverines
23.00%	77.00%
speed-demons	Tricksters
30.77%	69.24%
Winged Hussars	Necessary Roughness
25.72%	74.28%
Bling Bling	Not Lucky
66.26%	33.75%
Golden Eagles	Pegasus
40.29%	59.71%

Week 13 Matchups

Team 1	Team 2
Kali Warriors	Bling Bling
39.02%	60.98%
The Death Eaters	Red Warriors
86.33%	13.67%
Tricksters	Necessary Roughness
77.44%	22.56%
Golden Eagles	speed-demons
25.63%	74.38%
Detroit Wolverines	Not Lucky
49.83%	50.17%
Winged Hussars	Pegasus
39.07%	60.93%