It’s the last week of the regular season, and while the division seeds have been locked up, a lot can happen with the wild cards. Let’s dig into it!

Playoff Picture

Clinched Seeds

• Tricksters: Clinched the #1 seed
• Kali Warriors: Clinched the #2 seed
• Not Lucky: Clinched either the #3/#4 seed
• Winged Hussars: Clinched either #3/#4 seed

Mathematically eliminated:

• Pegasus

Monte Carlo Simulation

As usual, I’ve run a Monte Carlo sim of Rivalry Week, simulating 100,000 outcomes.

Matches are simulated using randomly generated scores sampled from a normal distribution based on each team’s performance this season.

Here are the results (sorted by total probability):

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Tricksters	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
Kali Warriors	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
Not Lucky	0.00%	0.00%	90.14%	9.86%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
Winged Hussars	0.00%	0.00%	9.86%	90.14%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%
Bling Bling	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	85.68%	85.68%
Necessary Roughness	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	71.73%	0.00%	71.73%
Red Warriors	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	22.24%	12.32%	34.56%
Detroit Wolverines	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	3.14%	1.30%	4.44%
speed-demons	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.88%	0.70%	3.58%
Golden Eagles	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.00%	0.01%
The Death Eaters	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.001%	0.001%
Pegasus	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Highlights

• In 100,000 simulations, The Death Eaters took the #6 seed exactly once. For this to happen, they need to both get around their season-high 219 points, and every other contender needs to have cripplingly bad games. But there is a chance.
• This illustrates how crucial the #6 seed is to helping out unlucky teams. Despite currently being 5-8 (#10 by record), Bling Bling has a very good shot at making it into the playoffs because of their overall good performance (75-68 overall wins).

Teams in the Hunt

Here are the teams in the hunt for a playoff seed (of which there are many) and what they need to happen in order to secure a shot at the championship.

Teams Likely to Lock it Up

In the “Competition, ranked by threat” list, percentages in parentheses refer to the probability of getting the contested seed, not total probability

Bling Bling (5-8 | 2121.7 | 85.68% Total Prob)

Seed they’re gunning for: #6

Competition, ranked by threat:

1. Red Warriors (2071.18 | 12.32%)
2. Detroit Wolverines (2039.1 1.3%)
3. speed-demons (2027.28 | 0.7%)
4. The Death Eaters (1946.04 | 0.001%)

What they need

• They are 50.52 points ahead of their biggest competition, so they just need to not score 50.53 fewer points than the Red Warriors, and they’ve pretty much locked it up.

Necessary Roughness (7-6 | 2075.84 | 71.73% Total Prob)

Seed they’re gunning for: #5

Competition, ranked by threat:

1. Red Warriors (6-7 | 2071.18)
2. Detroit Wolverines (6-7 | 2039.1)
3. speed-demons (6-7 | 2027.28)
4. Golden Eagles (6-7 | 1958.8)

What they need

• A win. Winning their game against rival Bling Bling would secure the #5 seed, since their 8-6 record would be unmatched.
• If they lose, they need:
  • Red Warriors to lose or win and score no more than 4.66 points than they do.
  • Detroit Wolverines to lose or win and score no more than 36.74 points than they do.
  • speed-demons to lose or win and score no more than 48.56 points than they do.
  • Golden Eagles to lose or win and score no more than 117.04 points than they do.

Long Shots

Here are the teams with a long shot at a playoff spot.

Red Warriors (6-7 | 2071.18 | 34.56%)

Their miracle

To secure a playoff spot against the odds, they need the following to happen:

More Likely (#5 Seed | 22.24%):

• Secure a win against the Golden Eagles.
• Necessary Roughness must lose the game they are currently favored to win.
• Score 4.67 more points than Necessary Roughness and maintain their points lead over other potentially 7-7 teams.

Less Likely (#6 Seed | 12.32%):

• Score at least 50.53 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).

Detroit Wolverines (6-7 | 2039.1 | 4.44%)

Their miracle

To secure a playoff spot against the odds, they need the following to happen:

More Likely (#5 Seed | 3.14%)

• Secure a win against the Tricksters (easier said than done).
• Necessary Roughness must lose the game they are currently favored to win.
• Score at least 36.75 points more than Necessary Roughness.

Less Likely (#6 Seed | 1.3%)

• Score at least 82.7 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).

speed-demons (6-7 | 2027.28 | 3.58%)

Their miracle

To secure a playoff spot against the odds, they need the following to happen:

More Likely (#5 Seed | 2.88%)

• Secure a win against the Kali Warriors.
• Necessary Roughness must lose the game they are currently favored to win.
• Score at least 48.57 points more than Necessary Roughness.

Less Likely (#6 Seed | 0.7%)

• Score at least 94.43 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).

Golden Eagles (6-7 | 1958.8 | 0.01%)

More Likely (#5 Seed | 0.01%)

• Secure a win against Red Warriors.
• Necessary Roughness must lose the game they are currently favored to win.
• Score at least 117.05 points more than Necessary Roughness.

Basically Impossible (#6 Seed | ~ 0.001%)>)

• Score at least 162.91 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).

The Death Eaters (3-10 | 1946.04 | ~ 0.001%)

Basically Impossible (#6 Seed | ~ 0.001%)

• Score at least 175.67 points more than Bling Bling (plus any additional if another team in the hunt scores enough to top Bling Bling).
• Probably the only reason this happened in the simulation but a #6 seed didn’t happen for Golden Eagles is that TDE’s season high is 10 points more than GE’s.

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And that’s the playoff picture! Good luck to all teams in the hunt: may the TDs be ever in your favor.