Your regular weekly update, plus some very premature playoff odds!
Weekly Update
Title Belt
In a tense contest of who-can-possibly-score-lower-than-that, Kali Warriors defended their title from The Death Eaters. They defend it from Golden Eagles in Week 4.
Scoring by Division
| Rank | Division Name | Points For | Wins | Average PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cerberus | 1376.86 | 6 | 152.98 |
| 2 | Division By Zero | 1559.38 | 5 | 173.26 |
| 3 | High Flyers | 1419.04 | 4 | 157.67 |
| 4 | The Resistance | 1593.48 | 3 | 177.05 |
With the lowest PF and Average PPG in the league, Cerberus leads the league in total wins. And with the highest PF and Average PPG in the league, The Resistance sits at dead last, having lost every single non-divisional game in the first three weeks. Simply incredible.
Points Leaders
Points For
| Rank | Team Name | Points For | Change | Points Behind Lead | Points Behind Next Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tricksters | 594.38 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2 | Detroit Wolverines | 544.48 | 1 | 49.90 | 49.90 |
| 3 | Pegasus | 535.04 | 2 | 59.34 | 9.44 |
| 4 | Bling Bling | 527.14 | 2 | 67.24 | 7.90 |
| 5 | Red Warriors | 509.30 | 2 | 85.08 | 17.84 |
| 6 | speed-demons | 503.92 | -4 | 90.46 | 5.38 |
| 7 | Winged Hussars | 498.82 | 3 | 95.56 | 5.10 |
| 8 | Necessary Roughness | 495.18 | 0 | 99.20 | 3.64 |
| 9 | Kali Warriors | 491.64 | -5 | 102.74 | 3.54 |
| 10 | Not Lucky | 487.76 | -1 | 106.62 | 3.88 |
| 11 | Golden Eagles | 385.18 | 1 | 209.20 | 102.58 |
| 12 | The Death Eaters | 375.92 | -1 | 218.46 | 9.26 |
Manager Ranking
Here’s the current grade for each team based on how well they managed their starting lineup throughout the season.
| Rank | Team Name | Points For | Max PF | Manager Grade | Curved | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bling Bling | 527.14 | 585.78 | 89.99% | 100.00% | 0 |
| 2 | Tricksters | 594.38 | 715.22 | 83.10% | 93.12% | 0 |
| 3 | Pegasus | 535.04 | 651.64 | 82.11% | 92.12% | 0 |
| 4 | The Death Eaters | 375.92 | 461.98 | 81.37% | 91.38% | 6 |
| 5 | Detroit Wolverines | 544.48 | 692.28 | 78.65% | 88.66% | 1 |
| 6 | speed-demons | 503.92 | 646.04 | 78.00% | 88.01% | -2 |
| 7 | Red Warriors | 509.30 | 654.50 | 77.82% | 87.83% | 0 |
| 8 | Necessary Roughness | 495.18 | 638.38 | 77.57% | 87.58% | -3 |
| 9 | Winged Hussars | 498.82 | 654.94 | 76.16% | 86.17% | 0 |
| 10 | Golden Eagles | 385.18 | 526.48 | 73.16% | 83.17% | 1 |
| 11 | Kali Warriors | 491.64 | 688.64 | 71.39% | 81.40% | -3 |
| 12 | Not Lucky | 487.76 | 707.58 | 68.93% | 78.94% | 0 |
Kali Warriors’ and Not Lucky’s Max PFs are fairly impressive, but their ability to predict which players will score well is not.
Power Rankings Table
Update
This week I’ve introduced another factor in the power ranking calculation: playoff chances. Based on my Monte Carlo simulation (introduced last season–more on that below), whatever chances you have of making the playoffs factor into your power ranking. Not as highly as wins, overall wins, or points for, but it factors in.
| TEAM NAME | POWER RANK | CHANGE | RECORD | OVERALL WINS | PPG | R.O.S. ROSTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Wolverines | #1 | 1 |
3-0 | 28-5 | #2, 181ppg | #7 |
| Tricksters | #2 | 1 |
2-1 | 23-10 | #1, 198ppg | #1 |
| Pegasus | #3 | 4 |
3-0 | 21-12 | #3, 178ppg | #11 |
| Kali Warriors | #4 | -3 |
3-0 | 18-15 | #9, 164ppg | #3 |
| Red Warriors | #5 | 0 |
2-1 | 16-17 | #5, 170ppg | #4 |
| Bling Bling | #6 | 0 |
1-2 | 20-13 | #4, 176ppg | #6 |
| speed-demons | #7 | -3 |
1-2 | 16-17 | #6, 168ppg | #5 |
| Not Lucky | #8 | 0 |
1-2 | 17-16 | #10, 163ppg | #8 |
| Winged Hussars | #9 | 2 |
1-2 | 16-17 | #7, 166ppg | #10 |
| Necessary Roughness | #10 | -1 |
0-3 | 13-20 | #8, 165ppg | #2 |
| The Death Eaters | #11 | -1 |
1-2 | 5-28 | #12, 125ppg | #9 |
| Golden Eagles | #12 | 0 |
0-3 | 5-28 | #11, 128ppg | #12 |
Power Rankings Over Time
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Notes:
- As predicted, Kali Warriors did not hold the top spot for very long at all. After a pathetic showing last week, they drop 3 spots and take the rightful crown as the worst undefeated team in the league.
- Prior to the start of the season, The Death Eaters was projected by experts as the worst roster in the league, and after a hot start have made their way back down, closer to that projection.
- Pegasus continues to baffle fantasy talking heads, rocketing up 4 spots to #3 despite having the 11th ranked roster.
Playoff Odds
You may recall from last year that I scripted out a Monte Carlo simulation to sim out the remainder of the season 10000 times using the trimmed mean and standard deviation of each team’s points scored in the weeks prior, generating scores for each week based on a normal distribution.
Well, since a trimmed mean and standard deviation would mean we’d be working with a sample size of one, I decided not to trim and just run based on how each team has scored so far. Here’s the summary of the results:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Probability of Playoff Berth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tricksters | 50.38% | 29.44% | 15.10% | 4.05% | 0.57% | 0.45% | 99.99% |
| Detroit Wolverines | 31.47% | 37.35% | 21.07% | 3.90% | 5.10% | 1.05% | 99.93% |
| Pegasus | 15.66% | 24.45% | 38.83% | 15.16% | 2.41% | 1.52% | 98.03% |
| Bling Bling | 0.72% | 2.24% | 2.45% | 0.55% | 47.50% | 33.56% | 87.02% |
| Red Warriors | 0.29% | 1.53% | 7.59% | 37.53% | 7.47% | 14.43% | 68.84% |
| Kali Warriors | 1.14% | 3.86% | 11.79% | 36.26% | 8.15% | 1.41% | 62.61% |
| speed-demons | 0.13% | 0.28% | 0.38% | 0.19% | 12.82% | 23.49% | 37.30% |
| Winged Hussars | 0.19% | 0.80% | 2.67% | 2.25% | 11.19% | 17.83% | 34.92% |
| Not Lucky | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 3.80% | 3.08% | 7.13% |
| Necessary Roughness | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.98% | 3.18% | 4.21% |
| The Death Eaters | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.014% | 0.003% | 0.000% | 0.017% |
| Golden Eagles | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Columns 1-6 represent each seed and the given team’s chances of getting that particular seed.
Obvious disclaimer is obvious: this season has been absolutely bonkers, and even with the larger sample size at the end of last season, this simulation got some things very wrong because of some key upsets. BUT, it’s still fun to look at.
Remainder of Schedule Calculations
Here’s a breakdown of what odds the simulation gave for each team in each matchup for the remainder of the season. At the very least, this should give you an idea of how difficult the rest of your season looks.
Week 4
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | Golden Eagles |
| 86.50% | 13.50% |
| Winged Hussars | Red Warriors |
| 46.91% | 53.09% |
| The Death Eaters | Pegasus |
| 8.67% | 91.33% |
| speed-demons | Bling Bling |
| 41.84% | 58.16% |
| Tricksters | Detroit Wolverines |
| 72.75% | 27.25% |
| Necessary Roughness | Not Lucky |
| 55.77% | 44.23% |
Week 5
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | Necessary Roughness |
| 46.76% | 53.24% |
| Golden Eagles | Not Lucky |
| 14.70% | 85.30% |
| Winged Hussars | Bling Bling |
| 42.11% | 57.89% |
| The Death Eaters | Tricksters |
| 3.70% | 96.30% |
| Red Warriors | speed-demons |
| 52.12% | 47.88% |
| Detroit Wolverines | Pegasus |
| 55.00% | 45.00% |
Week 6
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | Not Lucky |
| 52.00% | 48.00% |
| Golden Eagles | Bling Bling |
| 7.94% | 92.07% |
| Winged Hussars | Detroit Wolverines |
| 36.10% | 63.90% |
| The Death Eaters | Necessary Roughness |
| 10.00% | 90.00% |
| Red Warriors | Tricksters |
| 14.63% | 85.37% |
| speed-demons | Pegasus |
| 39.48% | 60.52% |
Week 7
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | speed-demons |
| 45.36% | 54.64% |
| Golden Eagles | Red Warriors |
| 6.81% | 93.19% |
| Winged Hussars | The Death Eaters |
| 78.55% | 21.45% |
| Bling Bling | Tricksters |
| 24.62% | 75.38% |
| Necessary Roughness | Detroit Wolverines |
| 1.42% | 98.58% |
| Pegasus | Not Lucky |
| 70.56% | 29.44% |
Week 8
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | Bling Bling |
| 32.33% | 67.67% |
| Golden Eagles | The Death Eaters |
| 52.77% | 47.23% |
| Winged Hussars | Necessary Roughness |
| 51.42% | 48.58% |
| Red Warriors | Not Lucky |
| 65.66% | 34.34% |
| speed-demons | Detroit Wolverines |
| 33.73% | 66.27% |
| Tricksters | Pegasus |
| 71.12% | 28.88% |
Week 9
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | Winged Hussars |
| 47.72% | 52.28% |
| Golden Eagles | speed-demons |
| 17.57% | 82.43% |
| The Death Eaters | Detroit Wolverines |
| 3.75% | 96.25% |
| Red Warriors | Pegasus |
| 36.53% | 63.47% |
| Bling Bling | Necessary Roughness |
| 70.88% | 29.12% |
| Tricksters | Not Lucky |
| 86.74% | 13.26% |
Week 10
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | Pegasus |
| 30.92% | 69.08% |
| Golden Eagles | Necessary Roughness |
| 9.34% | 90.66% |
| Winged Hussars | Tricksters |
| 25.96% | 74.05% |
| The Death Eaters | Bling Bling |
| 8.31% | 91.69% |
| Red Warriors | Detroit Wolverines |
| 7.97% | 92.03% |
| speed-demons | Not Lucky |
| 55.80% | 44.20% |
Week 11
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | Red Warriors |
| 36.54% | 63.46% |
| Golden Eagles | Pegasus |
| 8.61% | 91.39% |
| Winged Hussars | speed-demons |
| 48.70% | 51.30% |
| The Death Eaters | Not Lucky |
| 14.63% | 85.37% |
| Bling Bling | Detroit Wolverines |
| 38.86% | 61.14% |
| Tricksters | Necessary Roughness |
| 89.27% | 10.73% |
Week 12
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | Detroit Wolverines |
| 16.66% | 83.34% |
| Golden Eagles | Tricksters |
| 3.53% | 96.47% |
| Winged Hussars | Pegasus |
| 40.11% | 59.89% |
| The Death Eaters | Red Warriors |
| 7.85% | 92.15% |
| speed-demons | Necessary Roughness |
| 53.55% | 46.45% |
| Bling Bling | Not Lucky |
| 69.41% | 30.59% |
Week 13
| Team 1 | Team 2 |
|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | The Death Eaters |
| 86.46% | 13.54% |
| Golden Eagles | Winged Hussars |
| 22.40% | 77.60% |
| Red Warriors | Bling Bling |
| 37.90% | 62.10% |
| speed-demons | Tricksters |
| 23.67% | 76.33% |
| Necessary Roughness | Pegasus |
| 29.23% | 70.77% |
| Detroit Wolverines | Not Lucky |
| 84.34% | 15.66% |
Team Breakdowns by Division
Cerberus
| Team Name | Record | Division Rank | Overall Wins | Points For | PPG | PPG vs. League AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kali Warriors | 3-0 | 1 | 18-15 | 491.64 | 163.88 | -1.36 |
| Red Warriors | 2-1 | 2 | 16-17 | 509.30 | 169.77 | 4.52 |
| The Death Eaters | 1-2 | 3 | 5-28 | 375.92 | 125.31 | -39.94 |
Not a lot to say here. As a division, Cerberus is pretty bad compared to the rest of the league, except for where it counts. 😎
The Resistance
| Team Name | Record | Division Rank | Overall Wins | Points For | PPG | PPG vs. League AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tricksters | 2-1 | 1 | 23-10 | 594.38 | 198.13 | 32.88 |
| speed-demons | 1-2 | 2 | 16-17 | 503.92 | 167.97 | 2.73 |
| Necessary Roughness | 0-3 | 3 | 13-20 | 495.18 | 165.06 | -0.18 |
I have to talk about Necessary Roughness here. They are the epitome of average so far this season. Not only is their PPG only 0.18 from being identical to the league average, but the difference between their highest and lowest score is 5.28 points. The standard deviation of their scores is 2.91; the league average is 25.5.
It sucks for them, but it’s still super neat.
Division by Zero
| Team Name | Record | Division Rank | Overall Wins | Points For | PPG | PPG vs. League AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Wolverines | 3-0 | 1 | 28-5 | 544.48 | 181.49 | 16.25 |
| Bling Bling | 1-2 | 2 | 20-13 | 527.14 | 175.71 | 10.47 |
| Not Lucky | 1-2 | 3 | 17-16 | 487.76 | 162.59 | -2.66 |
Both the Wolverines and Bling Bling have tough matchups this week against the Tricksters and speed-demons respectively. It’ll be interesting to see if Detroit continues to run away with the division or if Bling Bling and/or Not Lucky will start to close that gap.
The High Flyers
| Team Name | Record | Division Rank | Overall Wins | Points For | PPG | PPG vs. League AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pegasus | 3-0 | 1 | 21-12 | 535.04 | 178.35 | 13.10 |
| Winged Hussars | 1-2 | 2 | 16-17 | 498.82 | 166.27 | 1.03 |
| Golden Eagles | 0-3 | 3 | 5-28 | 385.18 | 128.39 | -36.85 |
Despite the Hussars’ 1-2 record, the gap between them and Pegasus is not so wide. Sure, their sole win was against the undisputed worst team in the league, but they won while also putting up the highest score that week. The potential is obviously there for big wins; the question is whether those big wins will happen against more powerful teams.
Luck Chart
To the surprise of absolutely no one, Kali Warriors sits atop the luck chart after winning Week 3 with the 3rd lowest score of the week.
And despite being the most average team in the league, Necessary Roughness’ record fails to reflect that (as closely as it could with 3 games recorded, anyway).
On to Week 4!