Week 12 Newsletter

After a week off, the newsletter is back!

LEGEND
D	Clinched divisional seed
E	Eliminated from playoff contention

Weekly Status Update

Current Playoff Seeds

If the playoff seeds were calculated today, here’s who would make the cut.

Seed	Team Name	Criteria
1st	Bling Bling	Division winner with best record*
2nd	speed-demons	Division winner with second-best record*
3rd	Pegasus D	Division winner with third-best record*
4th	Total domination	Division winner with worst record*
5th	Not Lucky	Team with best record among remaining*
6th	Kali Warriors	Team with most points for among remaining

*Ties broken by Points For.

With Total domination taking the division lead in Cerberus, Kali Warriors fall down to the 6th WC seed. The speed-demons extend their lead over the Tricksters, whose playoff hopes are beginning to seriously falter.

Title Belt

speed-demons has DEFENDED the title belt from Necessary Roughness after winning their Week 11 matchup! They’re on a 3-week streak!

speed-demons will be defending the title from the Tricksters in this week’s upcoming divisional matchup.

Scoring by Division

Rank	Division Name	Points For	Wins	Average PPG
1	Division By Zero	5778.12	22	175.09
2	The Resistance	5465.38	16	165.62
3	Cerberus	5097.92	16	154.48
4	High Flyers	5102.24	12	154.61

Overall Wins by Week

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Kali Warriors	5-6	11-0	4-7	7-4	9-2	7-4	6-5	10-1	10-1	6-5	3-8
The Death Eaters	4-7	5-6	5-6	5-6	8-3	5-6	8-3	2-9	1-10	2-9	10-1
Red Warriors E	0-11	2-9	7-4	0-11	0-11	2-9	1-10	4-7	7-4	0-11	1-10
speed-demons	10-1	3-8	8-3	1-10	3-8	9-2	7-4	5-6	6-5	8-3	9-2
Tricksters	7-4	7-4	3-8	10-1	5-6	11-0	4-7	6-5	9-2	4-7	7-4
Necessary Roughness E	2-9	4-7	0-11	6-5	2-9	8-3	11-0	8-3	3-8	3-8	4-7
Bling Bling	8-3	10-1	9-2	11-0	11-0	6-5	5-6	11-0	5-6	10-1	0-11
Not Lucky	9-2	9-2	11-0	2-9	6-5	0-11	10-1	3-8	8-3	7-4	8-3
Detroit Wolverines	1-10	0-11	1-10	8-3	7-4	10-1	9-2	9-2	11-0	11-0	5-6
Pegasus D	11-0	6-5	10-1	9-2	4-7	1-10	0-11	1-10	2-9	9-2	11-0
Golden Eagles E	6-5	1-10	2-9	3-8	10-1	4-7	2-9	7-4	0-11	1-10	2-9
Winged Hussars E	3-8	8-3	6-5	4-7	1-10	3-8	3-8	0-11	4-7	5-6	6-5

Points Leaders

Points For

Rank	Team Name	Points For	Change	Points Behind Lead	Points Behind Next Rank
1	Bling Bling	1972.96	0	0.00	0.00
2	Not Lucky	1944.52	1	28.44	28.44
3	Kali Warriors	1912.70	-1	60.26	31.82
4	Tricksters	1869.48	1	103.48	43.22
5	Detroit Wolverines	1860.64	-1	112.32	8.84
6	speed-demons	1854.28	0	118.68	6.36
7	Pegasus D	1831.86	0	141.10	22.42
8	The Death Eaters	1760.84	1	212.12	71.02
9	Necessary Roughness E	1741.62	-1	231.34	19.22
10	Winged Hussars E	1652.00	0	320.96	89.62
11	Golden Eagles E	1618.38	0	354.58	33.62
12	Red Warriors E	1424.38	0	548.58	194.00

With Total domination claiming the division lead in Cerberus, the competition for the #6 wildcard seed just got a lot more interesting. So much hinges on whether Not Lucky claims the #5 wildcard seed at the end of the regular season.

Max Points For

Rank	Team Name	Max PF
1	Not Lucky	2511.86
2	Detroit Wolverines	2471.96
3	Kali Warriors	2439.64
4	Bling Bling	2407.96
5	speed-demons	2407.22
6	Tricksters	2300.12
7	Pegasus D	2212.36
8	Necessary Roughness E	2198.64
9	Winged Hussars E	2186.84
10	Golden Eagles E	2129.66
11	The Death Eaters	2093.40
12	Red Warriors E	1903.16

Manager Ranking

Rank	Team Name	Points For	Max PF	Manager Grade	Change
1	The Death Eaters	1760.84	2093.40	84.11%	2
2	Pegasus D	1831.86	2212.36	82.80%	0
3	Bling Bling	1972.96	2407.96	81.93%	-2
4	Tricksters	1869.48	2300.12	81.28%	1
5	Necessary Roughness E	1741.62	2198.64	79.21%	1
6	Kali Warriors	1912.70	2439.64	78.40%	-2
7	Not Lucky	1944.52	2511.86	77.41%	0
8	speed-demons	1854.28	2407.22	77.03%	2
9	Golden Eagles E	1618.38	2129.66	75.99%	2
10	Winged Hussars E	1652.00	2186.84	75.54%	-1
11	Detroit Wolverines	1860.64	2471.96	75.27%	-3
12	Red Warriors E	1424.38	1903.16	74.84%	0

---

Power Rankings

Table

TEAM NAME	RANK	CHANGE	RECORD	OVW	PPG	ROS ROSTER	CONS	OVW L5
Detroit Wolverines	#1	2	7-4	72-49	#5, 169ppg	#3	#7	45
Bling Bling	#2	-1	8-3	86-35	#1, 179ppg	#5	#8	31
speed-demons	#3	1	7-4	69-52	#6, 169ppg	#4	#2	35
Not Lucky	#4	1	7-4	73-48	#2, 177ppg	#9	#9	36
Kali Warriors	#5	-3	6-5	78-43	#3, 174ppg	#2	#4	35
Tricksters	#6	0	5-6	73-48	#4, 170ppg	#1	#1	30
Pegasus D	#7	2	7-4	64-57	#7, 167ppg	#6	#11	23
The Death Eaters	#8	-1	7-4	55-66	#8, 160ppg	#8	#6	23
Necessary Roughness E	#9	-1	4-7	51-70	#9, 158ppg	#7	#5	29
Winged Hussars E	#10	0	2-9	43-78	#10, 150ppg	#10	#3	18
Red Warriors E	#11	1	3-8	24-97	#12, 129ppg	#12	#12	13
Golden Eagles E	#12	-1	3-8	38-83	#11, 147ppg	#11	#10	12

Over Time

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        "label":"Pegasus"
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Observations

After weeks of comfortably sitting in the top 2, the Kali Warriors have plunged to #5, the lowest position they’ve been in since Week 5. A season-low performance and 2-week losing streak will do that.

The Detroit Wolverines have truly made a remarkable turnaround to dominance since being at #12 in Weeks 3 and 4. They’re averaging 9.8 overall wins per week over the last 5 weeks (translation: on average they’ve been in the top-3 of scorers each week for the past 5 weeks)!

Pegasus has climbed back up a bit to #7 this week, which is an interesting position for the only team that’s clinched a playoff spot. Despite Pegasus’s dominant performance last week, the byes showed us just how flimsy that team’s depth chart is, and with Marlon Mack out for a while (and the possibility of other injuries to key players always looming), there is every possibility that Pegasus makes a swift exit from the bracket come Week 14.

ROS Roster Rankings Over Time

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Playoff Probabilities

Methodology

I took the upcoming schedule and ran it through a Monte Carlo simulation, simulating 100,000 different regular season outcomes.

It’s not sophisticated; it doesn’t factor in upcoming BYE weeks or consider the different matchups players on each roster have that might produce extraordinary games.

Here’s what it does right now:

• Takes each team and computes a truncated mean and standard deviation for their point totals scored throughout the season.
  • I’m truncating the scores by removing each team’s lowest and highest score from the mean.
• Goes through each week and simulates a matchup by generating a random score for each team in the matchup. This random score is generated assuming a normal distribution and is based on the truncated mean and standard deviation for the team.
• After simulating the rest of the season, it calculates the playoff seeding for the results and records them.

Since it doesn’t take future BYE weeks into account that would potentially factor into future upsets, it’s obviously not a perfect simulation. But it does give you an idea for how difficult your coming schedule is.

Probability Table

Ordered by probability.

Quick note:

• Change is the change in each team’s Playoff Chance compared to when this was run last week.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance	Change
Pegasus	1.22%	40.56%	30.32%	27.90%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%
Bling Bling	83.10%	0.47%	0.60%	0.19%	13.43%	2.21%	99.99%	0.19%
Not Lucky	9.64%	0.24%	0.34%	0.10%	46.47%	39.04%	95.83%	-2.19%
speed-demons	0.83%	39.53%	33.87%	17.87%	0.00%	0.23%	92.31%	2.87%
Kali Warriors	0.01%	9.58%	14.70%	9.03%	4.23%	38.70%	76.25%	-11.13%
The Death Eaters	0.57%	8.97%	19.33%	37.81%	0.00%	0.00%	66.68%	28.06%
Detroit Wolverines	4.63%	0.65%	0.05%	0.00%	35.87%	7.79%	48.99%	-4.57%
Tricksters	0.00%	0.01%	0.81%	7.10%	0.00%	12.04%	19.96%	-13.22%
Red Warriors	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Necessary Roughness	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Golden Eagles	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Winged Hussars	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Observations

• After upsetting (in multiple senses) division rival Kali Warriors last week, Total domination’s playoff chances have increased dramatically.
• Meanwhile, the Kali Warriors’ chances have continued to drop. After losing a key matchup against Total domination, the Kali Warriors are looking toward a wildcard seed as their best hope for a playoff berth.
• The Tricksters have the most tenuous grasp on their playoff dreams. They’re hoping for a miracle.
• Fun fact: Bling Bling’s exact playoff probability is at 99.991%, meaning that of the 100,000 simulated outcomes, there were 9 in which Bling Bling missed the playoffs entirely. I’m not a betting man, but I’d be willing to wager he’ll make it in.

Week 12 Matchups

Team 1	Team 2
Kali Warriors	Red Warriors
95.61%	4.39%
The Death Eaters	Detroit Wolverines
27.99%	72.01%
speed-demons	Tricksters
41.90%	58.10%
Winged Hussars	Necessary Roughness
39.28%	60.72%
Bling Bling	Not Lucky
62.34%	37.66%
Golden Eagles	Pegasus
27.77%	72.23%

Week 13 Matchups

Team 1	Team 2
Kali Warriors	Bling Bling
39.06%	60.94%
The Death Eaters	Red Warriors
87.88%	12.12%
Tricksters	Necessary Roughness
77.31%	22.70%
Golden Eagles	speed-demons
17.59%	82.41%
Detroit Wolverines	Not Lucky
49.19%	50.81%
Winged Hussars	Pegasus
32.60%	67.40%

Team by Team Breakdown - Paths to the Playoffs

In this section I’m going to focus on the teams that haven’t yet secured a playoff spot and break down their most likely path to a shot at glory.

Bling Bling (99.99%)

Team Name	Record	Division Rank	Overall Wins	Points For	PPG	PPG vs. League AVG
Bling Bling	8-3	1	86-35	1972.96	179.36	16.91

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance
Bling Bling	83.10%	0.47%	0.60%	0.19%	13.43%	2.21%	99.99%

Their most likely path to the playoffs is pretty straightforward. Win this week, and they’ve pretty much done it. They face division rival Not Lucky this week, so a win this week means they quash their biggest divisional threat. Even if the Wolverines win their matchup against Total domination, the point lead Bling Bling has on the Wolverines (113.82) is so large that it is extremely unlikely the Wolverines would be able to bridge that gap after Week 13.

Not Lucky (95.83%)

Team Name	Record	Division Rank	Overall Wins	Points For	PPG	PPG vs. League AVG
Not Lucky	7-4	2	73-48	1944.52	176.77	14.32

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance
Not Lucky	9.64%	0.24%	0.34%	0.10%	46.47%	39.04%	95.83%

While a division seed is definitely possible, it’s not very likely at this point. Not Lucky has a couple very difficult matchups coming up the next couple weeks against their division rivals. Lucky for them, their position in the PF rankings mean if they don’t manage to get the #5 seed, they’ll probably get the #6. Other teams will be watching Not Lucky closely to see where they fall, since that has implications for other teams currently in the race.

speed-demons (92.31%)

Team Name	Record	Division Rank	Overall Wins	Points For	PPG	PPG vs. League AVG
speed-demons	7-4	1	69-52	1854.28	168.57	6.12

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance
speed-demons	0.83%	39.53%	33.87%	17.87%	0.00%	0.23%	92.31%

The speed-demons need only win one of the next two matchups to block the Tricksters out of a divisional seed. Lucky for them, they have the Golden Eagles in Week 13, a team that has looked very beatable.

Kali Warriors (76.25%)

Team Name	Record	Division Rank	Overall Wins	Points For	PPG	PPG vs. League AVG
Kali Warriors	6-5	2	78-43	1912.70	173.88	11.43

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance
Kali Warriors	0.01%	9.58%	14.70%	9.03%	4.23%	38.70%	76.25%

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Kali Warriors. Speaking as the team’s owner, when my star DL Myles Garrett bludgeoned Mason Rudolph with his own helmet, it felt like he was doing that to me. Or rather, my playoff dreams. While a playoff berth is far from out of the realm of possibility, that particular loss hurt pretty badly.

There are a few scenarios in which KW makes the playoffs:

• Total domination loses their next two games, and Kali Warriors wins at least one.
  • Fortunately for KW, they face the Red Warriors this week, so a win is pretty likely.
  • Unfortunately for KW, Total domination also faces the Red Warriors, except in two weeks.
• KW wins out, and Total domination loses one of the next two games.
  • Tough proposition for the Warriors, who face Bling Bling in two weeks.
• KW gets a wildcard seed.
  • Sitting at #3 in Points For on the season really helps their chances. If Not Lucky gets the #5 seed, KW would be the current recipient for #6. If they can manage to bridge the 28.44-point gap between themselves and Not Lucky, they’d get the #6 seed no matter what.

Total domination (66.68%)

Team Name	Record	Division Rank	Overall Wins	Points For	PPG	PPG vs. League AVG
Total domination	7-4	1	55-66	1760.84	160.08	-2.38

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance
Total domination	0.57%	8.97%	19.33%	37.81%	0.00%	0.00%	66.68%

The entirety of Total domination’s playoff chances depend on securing the divisional title. The odds of accomplishing that are pretty good at this point, after a key Week 11 victory.

All they need to do at this point to win the division is to win as many games as division rival Kali Warriors does in the remaining weeks of the season. Their only shot at winning the division is to make sure they remain a game ahead of Kali Warriors, since their PF is substantially lower than KW’s.

Detroit Wolverines (48.99%)

Team Name	Record	Division Rank	Overall Wins	Points For	PPG	PPG vs. League AVG
Detroit Wolverines	7-4	3	72-49	1860.64	169.15	6.70

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance
Detroit Wolverines	4.63%	0.65%	0.05%	0.00%	35.87%	7.79%	48.99%

If the Wolverines are the Cinderella story of this season, does that make Not Lucky their fairy godmother? 🤔 Of course, Dalvin Cook isn’t the sole reason for their success, but it would be fair to say he’s the team’s MVP.

Despite the Wolverines’ tremendous recent success, they’re still on an uncertain path to the playoffs. Their best shot at a playoff seed is securing the #5 wildcard seed.

Their biggest competition for that seed are:

• Total domination (7-4)
  • DW probably wants TD to win their division, since DW is currently a game ahead of the Kali Warriors (6-5) and should be able to maintain that lead.
• Kali Warriors
  • DW just needs to win as many games as KW does to maintain the lead on them.
• Not Lucky
  • Given the large PF lead NL has on DW, DW needs to win one more game than NL does.
  • DW should be able to win their matchup this week against Total domination, while NL has a tougher matchup against Bling Bling. If DW gets a game ahead of NL this week, they would just need to beat NL in Week 13.
• speed-demons
  • DW wants the speed-demons to win their division, which is a pretty likely prospect.
• Tricksters
  • The Tricksters are only a threat if they win out and DW loses out. Unlikely threat.

Tricksters (19.96%)

Team Name	Record	Division Rank	Overall Wins	Points For	PPG	PPG vs. League AVG
Tricksters	5-6	2	73-48	1869.48	169.95	7.50

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	Playoff Chance
Tricksters	0.00%	0.01%	0.81%	7.10%	0.00%	12.04%	19.96%

It’s been a tough past few weeks for the Tricksters. Right now, their outlook for the postseason is pretty grim.

Here are their playoff scenarios:

• They beat speed-demons this week, and the speed-demons lose to the Golden Eagles next week.
  • Winning this week is very doable, but it’s difficult to count on the Golden Eagles winning right now.
• Not Lucky gets the #5 seed, and the Tricksters bridge the 31.82-point gap between themselves and the Kali Warriors.

It doesn’t look good, but as always, anything can happen!

---

Luck Chart

This pretty much tracks with how team luck has felt. The Tricksters have gotten the short end of the stick in terms of luck; they lead the league in Points Against, and given their overall wins, their record should be somewhere between 6 and 7 wins. Losing even one game unfairly really hurts them, since that one game is the difference between a more probable divisional title and missing the playoffs entirely.

The Winged Hussars are the unluckiest team, but at this point, that’s probably circled back to being lucky, given that this helps his draft position next year.

Good luck in Week 12!